Abstract
The article attempts to develop regression based model for the prediction of stochastic—deterministic phenomena like orographic rain in North East Indian hills and valleys using historical thirty eight years data of rainfall over the three hill stations Majhitar, Silchar and Shillong. Considering the randomness, non-stationarity within the time series, the suitable model for prediction of rainfall has been determined. The performance of the prediction model is also calculated in terms of deviation from actual data. Results shows that for long term prediction of rainfall for the autoregressive integrated moving average ARIMA model (3, 1, 2) is suitable for obtaining the prediction of orographic rainfall of North eastern India.
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