Modelling of airborne birch pollen over Central Europe - model evaluation and sensitivity analysis.

Anthropogenic climate change and allergen exposure: The role of plant biology

In Poland birch belongs to the most important taxa producing allergenic pollen, therefore information on the start dates, duration and severity of the pollen season is very important for allergists and their patients as well as for climatologists. Birch pollen monitoring was conducted in Lublin using the volumetric method during the period 2001-2010. A Lanzoni VPPS 2000 trap was placed at a height of 18 m in the city centre. The pollen season was determined using three methods: 98%, 95%, and 90%. The present study also investigated correlations between the birch pollen season parameters and meteorological factors. A comparison of the above-mentioned methods shows that, in the conditions prevailing in Lublin, the most appropriate method to determine the birch pollen season is the 98% method, since in the case of the two other methods too large quantities of pollen grains are eliminated. Based on a comparative analysis of the meteorological data from the study period and the long-term averages, it can be concluded that in the recent years a clear increase in air temperature has been recorded in Lublin. The study found a statistically significant negative correlation of seasonal pollen concentration with rainfall and air humidity. When the pre-peak and post-peak periods were separated, these correlations were larger and related to different meteorological factors. The start of the pollen season was negatively correlated with temperature in February and March. The season duration depended on temperature (a positive correlation). The date of the seasonal maximum was positively correlated with seasonal temperature and negatively with temperature in April.

Potential contribution of distant sources to airborne Betula pollen levels in Northeastern Iberian Peninsula

A shift in the timing of birch pollen seasons is important because it is well known to be a significant aeroallergen, especially in NW Europe where it is a notable cause of hay fever and pollen-related asthma. The research reported in this paper aims to investigate temporal patterns in the start dates of Betula (birch) pollen seasons at selected sites across Europe. In particular it investigates relationships between the changes in start dates and changes in spring temperatures over approximately the last 20 years. Daily birch pollen counts were used from Kevo, Turku, London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna, for the core period from 1982 to 1999 and, in some cases, from 1970 to 2000. The sites represent a range of biogeographical situations from just within the Arctic Circle through to North West Maritime and Continental Europe. Pollen samples were taken with Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Weather data were obtained from the sites nearest to the pollen traps. The timing of birch pollen seasons is known to depend mostly on a non-linear balance between the winter chilling required to break dormancy, and spring temperatures. Pollen start dates and monthly mean temperatures for January through to May were compiled to 5-year running means to examine trends. The start dates for the next 10 years were calculated from regression equations for each site, on the speculative basis that the current trends would continue. The analyses show regional contrasts. Kevo shows a marked trend towards cooler springs and later starts. If this continues the mean start date will become about 6 days later over the next 10 years. Turku exhibits cyclic patterns in start dates. A current trend towards earlier starts is expected to continue until 2007, followed by another fluctuation. London, Brussels, Zurich and Vienna show very similar patterns in the trends towards earlier start dates. If the trend continues the mean start dates at these sites will advance by about 6 days over the next 10 years. Following this work, amendments will be needed to pollen calendars and local predictive models. It will also be important to assess the implications of earlier seasons for allergy sufferers.

In this 31-year retrospective study, we examined the influence of meteorology on airborne Betula spp. (birch) pollen concentrations in Turku, Finland. The seasonal incidence of airborne birch pollen in Turku occurred over a brief period each year during spring (April 30 – May 31). Mean peak concentrations were restricted to May (May 5 to 13). Statistically significant increases in the annual accumulated birch pollen sum and daily maximum values were observed over the study period. Birch pollen counts collected in April were retrospectively shown to increase over the duration of the study. Increases in April temperature values were also significantly associated with the earlier onset of the birch pollen season. Furthermore, the number of days where daily birch pollen concentrations exceeded 10 and 1,000 grains/m3 also increased throughout the study period. These data demonstrate that increases in temperature, especially during months preceding the onset of the birch pollen season, favor preseason phenological development and pollen dispersal. Birch pollen derived from other geographical locations may also contribute to the aerospora of Turku, Finland. To date, the public health burden associated with personal exposure to elevated birch pollen loads remains unclear and is the focus of future epidemiological research.

Allergic rhinitis concerns nearly 25% of the Polish population. Among pollen allergens, the most common reasons for allergic rhinitis are: grass, birch and mugwort. Knowledge of the characteristics of pollen seasons is necessary in diagnostics, monitoring of therapy and prevention of allergic rhinitis. P urpose: This work aims to analyze pollen seasons of the most allergenic plants in the Polish population; grass, birch and mugwort in the years 2003-2017 in Warsaw. M aterial and methods: Measurements of pollen concentration were carried out using Burkard volumetric spore trap operating in continuous mode. Analysis of pollen seasons was conducted based on the following characteristics: beginning, end, and length of season, the seasonal pollen index (SPI), defined as the sum of average daily pollen concentrations over the year, maximum daily concentration, number of days with maximum and threshold concentration. Linear regression together with the Pearson correlation coefficient were used in statistical analysis to study the relationship between variables; furthermore, descriptive characteristics of distributions studied were determined. R esults: The average beginning of the birch pollen season in the analyzed period is April 10th, and it belongs to seasons of average length (47 days on average). Birch pollen count above 75 grains/m3, when most allergic people develop symptoms, was recorded for an average of 18 days. The highest daily birch pollen count reaching 6321 grains/m3 (2012) exceeded the lowest value of the maximum concentration by almost 20 times (2015). Among the taxa analyzed, the highest values of daily counts and annual sums were recorded for birch pollen. The average date for the beginning of grass pollination season is on May 13th. It is the longest pollen season (on average 134 days), and the period when concentration exceeded 50 grains/m3 covered an average of 26 days. The highest daily grass pollen counts reaching 496 grains/m3 (2007) exceeded the lowest value of maximum concentration by 3.5 times (2016). The average date of the beginning of mugwort pollen season is July 16th. The season lasts 65 days on average, when concentration exceeding 30 grains /m3 was registered for an average of 12 days. The highest daily mugwort pollen count reaching 154 grains/m3 (2007) exceeded the lowest value of maximum concentration by 4 times (2013). For all analyzed taxa, the strongest correlated variables are the sum of average daily pollen concentrations over the year (SPI ) and daily maximum concentration (correlation for birch pollen = 0.92, for grass pollen = 0.88, and for mugwort pollen = 0.91). Periods of pollen in the air show certain variation in the analyzed 15-year period. The maximum concentration in the pollen season for the analyzed taxa and the the sum of average daily pollen concentrations over the year show the highest variability, particularly strongly expressed in the case of birch pollen. There is a linear relationship between the sum of average daily pollen concentrations over the year and the maximum concentration value as well as the number of days with the threshold concentration for all analyzed taxa. Variability of parameters describing the dynamics of pollen seasons indicates the need to monitor, both by patients with hay fever and physicians, the current information on the concentration of pollen in the air during the pollen season.

Constructing accurate predictive models for grass and birch pollen in the air, the two most important aeroallergens, for areas with variable climate conditions such as the United Kingdom, require better understanding of the relationships between pollen count in the air and meteorological variables. Variations in daily birch and grass pollen counts and their relationship with daily meteorological variables were investigated for nine pollen monitoring sites for the period 2000-2010 in the United Kingdom. An active pollen count sampling method was employed at each of the monitoring stations to sample pollen from the atmosphere. The mechanism of this method is based on the volumetric spore traps of Hirst design (Hirst in Ann Appl Biol 39(2):257-265, 1952). The pollen season (start date, finish date) for grass and birch were determined using a first derivative method. Meteorological variables such as daily rainfall; maximum, minimum and average temperatures; cumulative sum of Sunshine duration; wind speed; and relative humidity were related to the grass and birch pollen counts for the pre-peak, post peak and the entire pollen season. The meteorological variables were correlated with the pollen count data for the following temporal supports: same-day, 1-day prior, 1-day mean prior, 3-day mean prior, 7-day mean prior. The direction of influence (positive/negative) of meteorological variables on pollen count varied for birch and grass, and also varied when the pollen season was treated as a whole season, or was segmented into the pre-peak and post-peak seasons. Maximum temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of grass pollen in the atmosphere. Both maximum temperature (pre-peak) and sunshine produced a strong positive correlation, and rain produced a strong negative correlation with grass pollen count in the air. Similarly, average temperature, wind speed and rainfall were the most important variables influencing the count of birch pollen in the air. Both wind speed and rain produced a negative correlation with birch pollen count in the air and average temperature produced a positive correlation.

In Europe a quarter of the adult population and a third of all children suffer from allergenic airborne pollen thereby decreasing the quality of life. In order to ease the pollen induced symptoms mitigation measures can be applied. This, however, requires timely information on forthcoming pollen episodes derived from early warning systems. These systems can substantially be improved when pollen observations from strategically well-chosen pollen monitoring stations are assimilated.Here we explore the network quality (i) and network coverage (ii) of the current five pollen monitoring stations in Belgium. As reference dataset we use the spatio-temporal distributions of daily surface airborne birch and grass pollen levels as produced by the operational early warning system for pollen on the website of the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. This system implements the SILAM model (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric coMposition) and ECMWF meteorological data.The ability of the network to reproduce the concentration field over the region of interest is quantified by the RMSE computed from the reference concentration field and the interpolated concentration field for each day of the pollen season. In the first step, time series of the current daily pollen observations in the network are interpolated over space by applying the radial-based function. This results in the daily interpolated concentration fields which we compare with the spatially distributed daily reference data.For evaluating the network coverage of the current five monitoring stations we perform a footprint-based analysis. Footprints relate directly to the fraction of air reaching the monitoring device. By applying pollen emission point sources in the five stations into SILAM that is run in the backward mode (three days back), we can investigate the travelling trajectory of the captured birch and grass pollen in the air observed at the network stations. Nine pollen seasons (2013-2021) were analyzed using ECMWF ERA5 meteorology.First results on the network quality for birch pollen show that over a period of nine pollen seasons more than 60% of the daily RMSE values derived from the interpolated daily concentrations are less than their mean value. This is an indication that the interpolated network performs well compared to the spatio-temporal reference dataset derived from SILAM. For the 2013 birch pollen season more than 80% is reached. In contrast, this is only ~40% for 2020. The applied time scale is of great importance, since at smaller time scales (days, hours) network configurations may degrade faster than on larger time steps (weeks, months, seasons).The footprint-based analysis shows that on average the coverage of the monitoring stations for birch pollen is quite good. There are, however, large differences during the 2013-2022 seasons which might be due to the typical large inter-seasonal variation in birch pollen production. For grass pollen, the average coverage is better, and the inter-seasonal variation much lower.

In light of heightened interest in the response of pollen phenology to temperature, we investigated recent changes to the onset of Betula (birch) pollen seasons in central and southern England, including a test of predicted advancement of the Betula pollen season for London. We calculated onset of birch pollen seasons using daily airborne pollen data obtained at London, Plymouth and Worcester, determined trends in the start of the pollen season and compared timing of the birch pollen season with observed temperature patterns for the period 1995-2010. We found no overall change in the onset of birch pollen in the study period although there was evidence that the response to temperature was nonlinear and that a lower asymptotic start of the pollen season may exist. The start of the birch pollen season was strongly correlated with March mean temperature. These results reinforce previous findings showing that the timing of the birch pollen season in the UK is particularly sensitive to spring temperatures. The climate relationship shown here persists over both longer decadal-scale trends and shorter, seasonal trends as well as during periods of 'sign-switching' when cooler spring temperatures result in later start dates. These attributes, combined with the wide geographical coverage of airborne pollen monitoring sites, some with records extending back several decades, provide a powerful tool for the detection of climate change impacts, although local site factors and the requirement for winter chilling may be confounding factors.

Effect of 2-year placebo-controlled immunotherapy on airway symptoms and medication in patients with birch pollen allergy

Predicting onset and duration of airborne allergenic pollen season in the United States

The main source for indoor birch pollen (BP) allergens is outdoor particles, which are carried indoors mainly by people or pets and less likely via open windows and doors. So far, BP allergens have been shown by ELISA in the indoor air or in the settled dust, but these techniques have not enabled a reliable analysis of the respirable-sized fraction of air particles allergic subjects are exposed to. The aims of this study were to measure the airborne personal BP allergen exposure indoors and outdoors, to study the particle size of inhaled BP allergens and to analyse the allergen concentration of settled dust in relation to personal airborne allergen load. The air samples were collected before, during and after the BP season using a nasal air sampler, and the samples of settled dust were collected by a vacuum cleaner with a special collection device. BP allergens collected by nasal samplers were detected by the HALOgen immunoassay using birch pollen specific human IgE and rabbit IgG antibodies to BP, and the results were compared to IgG-ELISA used for detecting BP allergens in indoor settled dust and outdoor air. The highest concentrations of BP antigenic activity in settled dust were in the entrance corridor (next to the main front door) decreasing substantially from outdoors to indoors. Significant personal exposure to the airborne particles containing BP allergens outdoors was shown by the HALOgen immunostaining, before, during and after the BP season. During the BP season, the large, outdoor airborne particles carrying BP allergens were composed mainly of the pollen grains (75%). However, outside the pollen season, only a few large particles with stained (allergen) halos were found, and only 50% of those were pollen grains. In the indoor air, stained large and small particles appeared mainly during the pollen season and remained detectable until the end of the 6-week follow-up period. The results of the indoor settled dust BP antigenic activity detected by IgG-ELISA showed a good correlation with those of the HALOgen immunostaining. Human IgE detected BP grains with halos containing BP allergens from indoor air during the pollen season but none after the season. Higher sensitivity of the HALOgen™ assay was obtained using rabbit IgG antiserum, which revealed both small (5–20 μm) and large (>20 μm) particles with halos both before, during, and outside the peak BP season. Therefore, it is unlikely that the birch allergy symptoms indoors, after the pollen season, would be due to intact airborne pollen grains, but rather are due to other small particles carrying airborne BP allergens. A probable source of these particles is settled dust, which has been carried indoors by people or pets.

Birch pollen grains are one of the most important groups of atmospheric biological particles that induce allergic processes. The fluctuation pattern of birch pollen seasons in selected cities of Poland is presented. Measurements were performed by the volumetric method (Burkard and Lanzoni 2000 pollen samplers). The distributions of the data were not normal (Shapiro–Wilk test) and statistical error risk was estimated at a significance level of <em>α</em> = 0.05. Pollen season was defined as the period in which 95% of the annual total catch occurred. The linear trend for the selected features of the pollen season, skewness, kurtosis and coefficient of variation (<em>V</em>%) were also analyzed. During the 12–14 years of study, the beginnings of birch pollen seasons were observed 7–14 days earlier, the ends were noted 5–10 days earlier, and the days with maximum values occurred 7–14 days earlier compared to the long-term data. The left-skewed distribution of the pollen season starts in most sampling sites confirms the short-lasting occurrence of pollen in the air. The threat of birch pollen allergens was high during the pollen seasons. If vegetation is highly diverse, flowering and pollen release are extended in time, spread over different weeks and occur at different times of the day. Flowering time and pollen release are affected by insolation, convection currents, wind, and turbulence. Therefore, pollen seasons are characterized by great inter-annual variability.

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

Specific immunotherapy--the induction of new IgE-specificities?