Modelling multilateral negotiations: An application to California water policy

Abstract

In this paper we advance a new framework for noncooperative, multilateral bargaining that can be used to conceptualize negotiation processes. In the proposed game theoretic setting, the outcome of the negotiation process depends crucially on the “constitutional” structure of the game: the input each group has in the decision making process, the coalitions of groups that can implement proposals, the scope of the negotiations and, the outcome if the parties fail to reach agreement. Computer simulations allow investigation of the likely outcome of negotiations under various constitutional regimes. Analysis of recent water policy negotiations in California illustrates the capacity of the model.