Abstract
Inter-annual sea-ice variability north of 55°N in eastern Canada was explored with a box model incorporating annually invariant, bathymetrically dependent ocean heat fluxes and near-surface currents. Using inputs of ice concentrations, regional surface temperatures and geostrophic winds at external model boundaries, ice composition was simulated in seven thickness categories at 10 day intervals during three annual ice seasons. Comparisons indicated good reproduction of observed inter-annual differences in regional ice volumes during critical January-March periods. Additional simulations of artificial cutoffs in southward ice fluxes showed that advective influence decreases with latitude and dominates the development of spring ice conditions in areas south of 60°N.
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