Abstract
ObjectiveTo model the reduction in premature deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases if targets for reformulation of processed food agreed between the Portuguese health ministry and the food industry were met.MethodsThe 2015 co-regulation agreement sets voluntary targets for reducing sugar, salt and trans-fatty acids in a range of products by 2021. We obtained government data on dietary intake in 2015–2016 and on population structure and deaths from four major noncommunicable diseases over 1990–2016. We used the Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl tool to estimate the deaths averted if reformulation targets were met in full. We projected future trends in noncommunicable disease deaths using regression modelling and assessed whether Portugal was on track to reduce baseline premature deaths from noncommunicable diseases in the year 2010 by 25% by 2025, and by 30% before 2030.FindingsIf reformulation targets were met, we projected reductions in intake in 2015–2016 for salt from 7.6 g/day to 7.1 g/day; in total energy from 1911 kcal/day to 1897 kcal/day due to reduced sugar intake; and in total fat (% total energy) from 30.4% to 30.3% due to reduced trans-fat intake. This consumption profile would result in 248 fewer premature noncommunicable disease deaths (95% CI: 178 to 318) in 2016. We projected that full implementation of the industry agreement would reduce the risk of premature death from 11.0% in 2016 to 10.7% by 2021.ConclusionThe co-regulation agreement could save lives and reduce the risk of premature death in Portugal. Nevertheless, the projected impact on mortality was insufficient to meet international targets.
Highlights
In 2017, 88% (96 587) of 109 758 deaths in the Portuguese population of 10 291 027 were attributed to noncommunicable diseases.[1]
Portugal has committed to the United Nations sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4 to reduce premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one third by 2030 and the voluntary target to reduce these deaths by one quarter by 2025 from the baseline year 2010
We estimated that the reductions in nutrient intakes, if the food reformulation targets were met in full, would avert a total of 798 deaths attributed to noncommunicable diseases in 2016 (Table 4)
Summary
In 2017, 88% (96 587) of 109 758 deaths in the Portuguese population of 10 291 027 were attributed to noncommunicable diseases.[1] Portugal has committed to the United Nations sustainable development goal (SDG) target 3.4 to reduce premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one third by 2030 and the voluntary target to reduce these deaths by one quarter by 2025 from the baseline year 2010. Dietary risk factors are the leading preventable cause of noncommunicable diseases morbidity and mortality in Portugal.[1,2] In response to the increasing prevalence of noncommunicable diseases the government introduced the National Programme for the Promotion of Healthy Eating in 2012.5,6 According to national data, the mean daily intake of free sugars in 2015–2016 was 35 g/day and about 24% (2 600 00) of the population exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended limits for free-sugar consumption. Trans-fatty acids (TFAs) intake constituted more than 1% of the total energy intake for only 0.4% (43 000) of the population.[4]
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