Modelling gravel barrier response to storms and sudden relative sea-level change using XBeach-G

Abstract

This paper investigates the response of a mixed sand and gravel (MSG) barrier coastline to storms and sudden relative sea-level change using the numerical model XBeach-G. The barrier beaches of southern Hawke's Bay, New Zealand provide a natural laboratory for the work owing to spatial variability in instantaneous land deformation that occurred during the 1931 Hawke's Bay earthquake. Historic (1931) and contemporary (2017) morphodynamics of one tectonically uplifted (+1.5 m) and one subsided (−0.78 m) barrier were modelled under energetic waves (Hs 1–6 m). XBeach-G was designed to simulate pure gravel beach morphodynamics, but despite this, the model demonstrated high quantitative skill when calibrated for the MSG coast. Results reveal the storm impact regimes of each profile and potential linkages to decadal-scale barrier development observed in historical beach profile data. Storm-swash processes at the uplifted profile indicate long-term barrier stability due to a lack of change at the barrier crest, and ridge building observed in model simulations provides a potential formative mechanism for decadal-scale beach progradation. At the subsided barrier, modelled historic crest build-up (up to 0.3 m) and narrowing (over 5 m) indicate an overtopping mode of response to sudden relative sea-level rise. Simulation results are consistent with historical beach profile observations that also show chronic narrowing of the subsided barrier through time. Simulations of the modern barrier draw attention to the possibility that it may be on a trajectory toward catastrophic breakdown under extreme conditions, but further work is needed to distinguish the relative importance of historical sudden sea-level rise versus deficits in sediment supply to this shoreline.