Modelling and forecasting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria: Comparison of regression, ARIMA and machine learning models

Abstract

Covid-19 remains a global pandemic threatening hundreds of countries in the world. The impact of Covid-19 has been felt in almost every aspect of life and it has introduced globally, a new normal of livelihood. This global pandemic has triggered unparalleled global health and economic crisis. Therefore, modelling and forecasting the dynamics of this pandemic is very crucial as it will help in decision making and strategic planning. Nigeria as the most populous country in Africa and most populous black nation in the world has been adversely affected by Covid-19 pandemic. This study models and compares forecasting performance of regression, ARIMA and Machine Learning models in predicting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria. The study obtained data on daily new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria between 27th February, 2020 and 30th November, 2021. Graphical analysis showed that Nigeria had witnessed three waves of Covid-19 with the first wave between 27th February, 2020 and 23rd October, 2020, the second wave between 24th October, 2020 and 20th June, 2021 and the third wave between 21st June, 2021 and 30th November, 2021.The second wave recorded the highest spikes in new cases compared to the first wave and third wave. Result reveals that in terms of forecasting performance, inverse regression model outperformed other regression models considered as it shows lowest RMSE of 0.4130 compared with other regression models. Also, the ARIMA (4, 1, 4) outperformed other ARIMA models as it reveals the highest R2 of 0.856 (85.6%), least RMSE (0.6364), AIC (-8.6024) and BIC (-8.5299). Result reveals that Fine tree which is one of the Machine Learning models is more reliable in forecasting new cases of Covid-19 in Nigeria compared to other models as Fine tree gave the highest R2 of 0.90 (90.0%) and least RMSE of 0.22165. Result of 15 days forecasting indicates that Covid-19 pandemic is not over yet in Nigeria as new cases of Covid-19 is projected to increase on 15/12/2021 with predicted new cases of 988 compared with that of 14/12/2021, where only 729 new cases was predicted. This therefore emphasizes the need to strengthen and maintain the existing Covid-19 preventive measures in Nigeria.