Abstract
Abstract Unique long-term historical emergence records were used to assess the association between weed seedling emergence and various elements of meteorological data. These elements included both temperature-based and rainfall-related variables in the 7-d periods before and during which emergence occurred. Five weed species (Stellaria media, Chenopodium album, Capsella bursa-pastoris, Matricaria perforata, and Veronica hederifolia) with contrasting emergence patterns were studied in disturbed soil. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify meteorological variables of interest and allowed their relative importance to be assessed and ranked. Logistic regression was further used to associate probabilities of emergence with observed levels of important individual meteorological elements. This approach enabled prediction of the probability of emergence following given meteorological conditions and hence an assessment of the risk of omitting weed control measures. Predictions were made based on single ...
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