Modeling Traffic Demand of Tourist Areas Based on a Joint Prediction Model

Abstract

Tourist traffic plays a crucial role in the development of tourist attractions. A complete transportation system is a prerequisite to support and guarantee the implementation of all tourist functions. In the special planning of tourist area, predicting and analyzing tourist traffic demand lays the important foundation for other content. Due to the lack of historical data in the newly-developed tourist areas, selection of scenic transportation modes, determination of the size of transportation facilities and traffic management methods should be made on the basis of accurate forecast of future traffic demand. Considering the characteristics of the newly-developed tourist area, this article proposed a tourist traffic prediction model based on the gray model and the environmental capacity limited model. With the example of the tourist area of Nishan, Qufu, this paper predicted the total annual tourist reception capacity as well as tourist numbers by the prediction model. The model results show that the joint prediction model have positive significance in improving reasonableness and accuracy of predicting tourist traffic demand.