Abstract

The accelerated urbanization and industrialization in China is leading to major challenges due to rising energy demand and emissions. Cities in particular play an important role in the decision-making and implementation processes for the energy transition. However, they often have only limited local energy potential and are heavily dependent on supply regions. We therefore assess how a predominantly renewable power supply can be implemented based on the availability of local or imported renewable resources. We present a case study in which an advanced energy system model is parametrized and applied to address questions which are relevant to the transformation of the energy system in China. The model is capable of simultaneously optimizing investment decisions and hourly power balances of a scenario year, taking into account different storage technologies, regional power exchange and policy constraints such as carbon cap, carbon price and renewable portfolio standards. The study takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region with Inner Mongolia as a supply region—considered as exemplary regions characterized by heterogeneous infrastructures, resources and consumption—as its model. Starting from a context-related normative energy scenario, we analyze a possible future electricity system under various assumptions using the Renewable Energy Mix (REMix) energy system model developed at the DLR (German Aerospace Center). Depending on the estimated potentials of renewable energies, technology costs and the projected electricity demand, the metropolitan region is mainly supplied with imported wind and solar power. A sensitivity analysis considers installed capacities, annual generation, CO2 emissions and costs. The results indicate that the assumption of storage costs is of great importance for the future total costs of an electricity system. Variations in other parameters led to different generation portfolios with similar system costs. Our results provide insights into future regional infrastructure needs, and underline the importance of regional coordination and governance for the energy transition in China.

Highlights

  • Metropolitan regions are defined as cities and their surrounding areas with close socio-economic links and with a concentration of population, transport and economic activities that are largely dependent on imports from their hinterland [1]

  • Similar conclusions be found inSimilar other sensitivity conclusions can be found in other sensitivity studies for power systems dominated by renewable studies for power systems dominated by renewable energies [17,18,44]

  • Sensitivity analysis on system costs from 2030 to 2050 in both regions shown as deviations from the reference scenario

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Summary

Introduction

Metropolitan regions are defined as cities and their surrounding areas with close socio-economic links and with a concentration of population, transport and economic activities that are largely dependent on imports from their hinterland [1]. The current serious urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions are mainly caused by local coal-dominated power and heating plants, as well as oil-fueled road transport. The current combined the decarbonization the powerstrategy system,for is urban an [2]. Important transition penetration of renewable in thethe power sector in China’s metropolitan regions quite low, strategy for urban areasenergies [2]. Current penetration of renewable energies in the is power sector in. China’s metropolitan regions is quite low, with a share of less than of total electricity with a share of less than 5% of total electricity generation (see Figure 1).

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