Modeling the spatially dynamic distribution of humans in the Oregon (USA) Coast Range

Abstract

A common approach to land use change analyses in multidisciplinary landscape-level studies is to delineate discrete forest and non-forest or urban and non-urban land use categories to serve as inputs into sets of integrated sub-models describing socioeconomic and ecological processes. Such discrete land use categories, however, may be inappropriate when the socioeconomic and ecological processes under study are sensitive to a range of human habitation. In this paper, we characterize the spatial dynamic distribution of humans throughout the forest landscape of western Oregon (USA). We develop an empirical model describing the spatial distribution and rate of change in historic building densities as a function of a gravity index of development pressure, existing building densities, slope, elevation, and existing land use zoning. We use the empirical model to project changes in building densities that are applied to a 1995 base map of building density to describe future spatial distributions of buildings over time. The projected building density maps serve as inputs into a multidisciplinary landscape-level analysis of socioeconomic and ecological processes in Oregon's Coast Range Mountains.