Abstract
Philip Morris International (PMI) has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effects of marketing a candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) on the public health of a whole population. Various simulations were performed to understand the harm reduction impact on the U.S. population over a 20-year period under various scenarios. The overall reduction in smoking attributable deaths (SAD) over the 20-year period was estimated as 934,947 if smoking completely went away and between 516,944 and 780,433 if cMRTP use completely replaces smoking. The reduction in SADs was estimated as 172,458 for the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target and between 70,274 and 90,155 for the gradual cMRTP uptake. Combining the scenarios (WHO 2025 Target and cMRTP uptake), the reductions were between 256,453 and 268,796, depending on the cMRTP relative exposure. These results show how a cMRTP can reduce overall population harm additionally to existing tobacco control efforts.
Highlights
Worldwide, there are approximately 1.1 billion smokers, and nearly 6 million deaths are attributed to smoking annually [1]
Philip Morris Internationsl (PMI) is developing non-combustible tobacco and nicotine containing products that have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continued smoking
2.5.6. candidate modified risk tobacco product (cMRTP) Uptake Case in Addition to the World Health Organization (WHO) 2025 Target. This scenario examines the effects of combining a 30% reduction in smoking prevalence in 15 years with the addition of 17% of the remaining adult smokers using an cMRTP within 10 years, with both continuing to decline at the same rates for the remainder of the 20-year period
Summary
There are approximately 1.1 billion smokers, and nearly 6 million deaths are attributed to smoking annually [1]. Philip Morris Internationsl (PMI) is developing non-combustible tobacco and nicotine containing products that have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continued smoking. PMI has developed the Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) to quantify, in the absence of epidemiological data, the effect that marketing a cMRTP may have on the health of the population as a whole [9,10] This activity is accompanied by an increasing number of publications on alternative modeling approaches for estimating the population health impact following changes in the nicotine and tobacco product landscape [11,12,13,14]. It is of key importance to describe these assumptions, and how variation in them affects the estimated population health impact, clearly
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