Abstract
As a geographical indication product, Salak Pondoh Sleman can only be cultivated in certain regions, to get fruit with distinctive characteristics. The risk of climate change in the future, therefore, can have an impact both on the possessed characteristics and on the grown area, both directly affecting the amount of product availability in the market. This study aims to generate a spatial model on the probability of Salak Pondoh Sleman plantation distribution under climate change. IP (IPSL-CM5A-LR) model in RCP45 was used to project the temperature and precipitation in 2050. Modeling the probability of plantation distribution was done by ArcMap 10.3 and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) software. Based on the developed model, Salak Pondoh Sleman is vulnerable to the climate change effect, indicated by the smaller probability of distribution of the Salak Pondoh Sleman planting area in 2050. The decrease in a suitable grown-area and required risk mitigation are discussed further in this paper.
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