Modeling the Path-Dependency of the Credit Exposure in Vanilla Products

Abstract

This paper focuses on modeling the scenario path-dependency of the counterparty credit exposure. The purpose of this paper is threefold: (1) to propose a simple method for consistent estimation of pathwise European swaption exercise probability; (2) to discuss accurate pathwise simulation of barrier option exposure; and (3) to present some exact formulas for the calculation of standalone expected positive exposure and potential future exposure for a single-currency vanilla swap, a physically settled European swaption, and a barrier option without Monte Carlo simulation. These exact formulations are of practical importance to computing standalone exposure profiles, exposure model validation, and system benchmarking.