Modeling the occupancy rate and nights spent at tourism accommodations of Spain using autoregressive deep learning networks

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to autoregressively model the net occupancy rate of beds and bedrooms in hotels and similar accommodations and the nights spent at these accommodations of Spain for the period of 1990–2023 using monthly data. Design/methodology/approach The monthly occupancy rate of hotels and the total number of hotel nights data of Spain for the 1990M01–2023M09 range is considered. An autoregressive deep learning network is developed for the modeling of both metrics. Moreover, the results of the proposed autoregressive deep learning method are compared to those of a classical artificial neural network. Findings The actual occupancy rate, total night data and the deep learning model results are compared showing the accuracy of the developed model. Moreover, the R2, mean absolute error, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error of the models are calculated further demonstrating the high performance of the developed model. The R2 values higher than 0.9 are achieved for both occupancy rate and total number of hotel nights data. Practical implications The modeling results given in this paper demonstrate that the previous values of the net occupancy rate and the total number of nights can be used as inputs of a deep learning network model by which accurate forecasts can be made for the future values of the occupancy rate and the total number of hotel nights. This modeling approach possesses importance from the practical viewpoint considering that the accurate planning and forecast of the net occupancy rate and the total number of nights affect the tourism income. Originality/value This study differs from existing literature by attempting to model the occupancy rate and the total number of hotel nights data autoregressively using deep learning networks.