MODELING THE FUTURE OF CORAL REEFS: AN ECO-MORPHODYNAMIC APPROACH

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Coral reefs are complex biological structures that provide critical ecosystem services, such as provision of habitat for marine organisms, fisheries supply, recreational space for tourism industry, and coastal protection. Due to climate change, coral reefs have been undergoing, and will continue to experience, alterations in their capacity to deliver essential ecosystem services. To comprehend these existing alterations and forecast reef responses to future climate change scenarios, it is imperative to employ dynamic modeling approaches that encompass both abiotic and biotic factors. This study aims to build an eco-morphodynamic point model (also known as a Zero-Dimensional – 0D - Model) that incorporates the key variables responsible for driving changes within reef systems, ultimately affecting their capacity to mitigate wave impacts and facilitate sediment production. For the development of this model, we chose the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) as a testing ground, due to its extensive reef network, offering a wide range of scenarios, and its ample and long-term data availability.