Abstract

Motivation-Two decision-making processes have been identified: an analytical process and an intuitive process. One conceptual model of the latter is the Recognition Primed Decision (RPD) model (Klein, 2008). According to this model, decision making in naturalistic contexts entails a situational pattern-recognition process which, if subsequent expectancies are confirmed, lead the decision maker to render a decision to engage in a given course of action. Research approach-In this paper, we describe a system dynamics model of Klein's RPD framework, focusing upon the dynamics of the decision process. Findings/Design-Our framework is based on a model of a set of laboratory phenomena called conjunction benefits and conjunction costs, which was extended to encompass the RPD framework. Research limitations/Implications-Our simulations suggest that decision priming (bias in decision making) should occur in many naturalistic settings. Originality/Value-Originality comes from system dynamics modeling. Take away message-Robust decision making based on pattern recognition may be susceptible to priming.

Highlights

  • Many authors (e.g., Evans, 2008; Sloman, 1996) have proposed that human reasoning is composed of a blend of two systems, an analytical system and an intuitive system

  • Recognition-Primed Decision Making Klein (1997, 2008) proposed a conceptual model of intuitive pattern-recognition-based decision making called the recognition-primed decision (RPD) model, which is composed of three components: a matching component, a diagnose component, and a simulate-course-of-action component

  • We focus on the match and diagnose components of Klein's model, which convey the idea that an initial pattern matching process is first undertaken, followed by a subsequent situational assessment that entails a further pattern matching process that may confirm or violate expectations

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Many authors (e.g., Evans, 2008; Sloman, 1996) have proposed that human reasoning is composed of a blend of two systems, an analytical system and an intuitive system. In this model, an individual with expertise identifies a problem situation as typical and familiar, based upon a match to an analog situation stored in memory, and as expectations become confirmed over time, he or she decides to initiate an action. The model was composed of three levels: (1) initial integration processes involving different information, shown down the left side of the figure; (2) mental events concerning recognition or expectancies, depicted down the middle of the figure; (3) a central-decision process rendering an 'implement course of action' decision, or a 'diagnose' decision, shown on the right side of the figure.

D IA GN OS E
F A M IL IA R S IT U A T IO N IN FORMAT IO NOTHER IN FORMAT IO N A
F A M IL IA R S IT U A T IO N
A C TION
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