Abstract
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium parasite and is transmitted among humans through bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes. It is estimated 216 million people suffered from malaria in 2016, with over 400,000 deaths mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. A number of control measures have been put in place: most importantly the insecticide treated net (ITN) and indoor residual sprayings (IRS) of insecticide. Currently, the emergence and spread of resistance in mosquito populations against insecticides is the most common and widely spread .It is also poses a key obstacle to malaria control as well as jeopardizing the effects of the most efficient malaria control interventions. A mathematical model that incorporates the evolution of insecticide resistance and its impact on endemic malaria transmission i.e., effects of indoor residual sprayings (IRS) on the insecticide resistant and sensitive malaria vector strains as a control strategy is incorporated and analyzed. The object of the study is to understand qualitatively the factor that have more influence for the emergence and spread of resistance of malaria vectors against IRS and their impacts on the efficacy of IRS. Based on a Ross-Macdonald derivation of malaria model the effective reproduction number〖 R〗_e isused to assess the effects of IRS in the qualitative analysis of the model. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria of the model are studied. It is established that the malaria can be brought under control as long as R_(e )is kept below the threshold value. Numerical simulations studies are conducted so as to determine the role played by key parameters of the model. The public health implications of the results include: (i) every effort should be taken to minimize the evolution of insecticide resistance due to malaria control interventions failure and (ii) at least a combination of two types of different control measures and followed by rotation of intervention strategies could be more realistic to minimize the number of resistant malaria vector strains and essential in reducing the malaria burden in the community.
Highlights
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite and is transmitted among humans through bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes
In our analysis of the modeling the dynamics of endemic malaria transmission with the effects of control measure (IRS), we ran a number of simulations using the initial population sizes and a set of parameter values in Table 3 and Table 4 respectively in this model
As the evolution of insecticide resistance that allows for small proportion of mosquitoes possessing resistance genes allowing them to resist and survive the effects of the insecticide (IRS) increases, the change in reproduction number of resistant malaria vector strains against insecticide is clearly seen
Summary
Malaria is an infectious disease caused by the Plasmodium parasite and is transmitted among humans through bites of female Anopheles mosquitoes. Insecticide resistant malaria vector strains limits the effectiveness of control and intervention strategies This resulted in higher: malaria morbidity and mortality, increased cost of malaria disease management, increased burden on the health care facilities, and increased relative malaria incidence and parasite infection prevalence within individuals. The so called mathematical model is used to show that bringing mosquito population below a certain threshold is sufficient to eliminate malaria This threshold naturally depends on biological factors such as the biting rate and vectors capacity [9]. Ross – Macdonald model focused on only one factor that mosquito vector longevity as the single most important variable This variable is used in the force of transmission of the disease and strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention. Considered that the infection with the insecticide sensitive strain will give rise the insecticide resistant strain in the event of indoor residual spray IRS fails to kill mosquito vectors
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