Abstract

A carbon cycle model is proposed that predicts changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and provides a global temperature estimate from an empirical correlation of the two variables. The model is validated by simulating the anthropogenic carbon emissions and deforestation since the industrial revolution, and comparing the predicted and measured atmospheric CO2 concentration and global temperature data. The temperature data are also compared with those predicted by a greenhouse effect model based on the effective emission temperature hypothesis. The result suggests that radiative forcing by CO2 alone can account for only about half of the measured global warming. The model requires further elaboration for the other half, in order to be applicable to simulation of potential climate control.

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