Modeling technology diffusion of complementary goods: The case of hydrogen vehicles and refueling infrastructure

Abstract

Hydrogen has emerged as a possible transportation fuel for addressing long-term, sustainable energy supply, security, and environmental problems. Yet, there are a number of barriers that need to be overcome if hydrogen vehicles are ever to penetrate transportation markets, not the least of which is the development of a vehicle–infrastructure system. Hydrogen vehicles and refueling infrastructure are complementary goods and must both successfully penetrate transportation markets for either to be successful. This paper describes a system dynamics model created to investigate the vehicle–infrastructure phenomenon currently inhibiting the growth of hydrogen transportation systems. Four scenarios explore the phenomenon through analysis of vehicle adoption, infrastructure development rates, and hydrogen market conditions. We conclude that a coordinated policy approach that simultaneously encourages both the purchase of hydrogen vehicles and the building of hydrogen infrastructure is the most effective approach for rapid vehicle–infrastructure adoption.