Modeling technological deployment and renewal: monotonic vs. oscillating industrial dynamics
The deployment of a technology typically follows an S-shaped curve, characterized by an initial phase of exponential growth, followed by a saturation phase where deployment slows and stabilizes at a maximum level. While existing literature has primarily focused on modeling and theorizing this growth pattern—particularly the early exponential phase—less attention has been paid to the long-term dynamics of sustaining a technological stock after its deployment peak. This gap is critical for incrementally evolving technologies without technical disruption, especially in the context of long-term industrial sustainability. In this study, we propose a model combining an S-curve deployment trajectory with a lifetime distribution of technological equipment, enabling us to simulate both the initial deployment and the subsequent renewal phases. Our key finding is that the characteristics of the deployment phase significantly influence the renewal dynamics. Specifically, when deployment is fast relative to equipment lifespan, production trajectories exhibit overshoot and oscillations—contrary to the smoother dynamics observed with slower deployment. Case studies, such as nuclear reactor deployment, illustrate these phenomena, revealing production overshoots exceeding 200%. We also present case studies on smartphones, passenger cars, consumer goods, photovoltaic panels, and wind turbines. These endogenous production cycles raise concerns about the post-deployment viability of industries, as observed in the nuclear sector. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of anticipating long-term maintenance challenges for rapidly deployed technologies, a consideration that is particularly relevant in the context of the energy transition. This model provides a foundation for future work on the systemic implications of technology deployment and renewal in low-carbon transitions.
- Research Article
- 10.7290/ijns09347061
- Jan 1, 2024
- International Journal of Nuclear Security
The experimental small modular reactors (SMRs) have come to gain immense attention and importance given the global quest to quickly achieve net-zero goals. The Indian Government, too, has been pushing for SMRs to aid its industrial decarbonization targets and eventually wield the supply mediation in the race to acquire this novel technology. However, one of the key debates driving SMR discourse in India is the dilemma of allowing the involvement of the private sector into the nuclear energy realm. Although this idea seems to be an exciting solution to India’s energy woes, the reevaluation of a 60-year-old energy law comes with a new set of security challenges and financial opportunities for New Delhi regarding the manufacturing and deployment of these new state-of-the-art reactors. This paper analyzes the efficacy of incorporating SMRs into India’s energy mix and if it would be more advantageous to allow private investments into the nuclear energy sector. This research studied India’s energy laws and traced its amendments and shortcomings over the years. Although leveraging the private entities may prove to be beneficial in providing cost-effective and smooth grid-adjustment fixes for the nuclear energy sector, the method will face major structural and security challenges and will require an extensively elaborate technology-neutral policy framework with a focus on green taxonomies, as well as a pivot around societal acceptance. There has not been much research conducted on the idea of commencing private involvement in the Indian nuclear energy sector apart from a few NITI Aayog reports and a few trivial opinion pieces in the print media. This study used archival policy reports, government documents, parliamentary discussions, and interviews of officials at the intersection of science and policy as sources to build an elaborate policy report on how beneficial the incorporation of private entities into the nuclear sector would be. Although SMRs have been on the policy lineups for almost a decade now, they have not translated into a practical commercial option. This research tried to investigate if allowing private players would benefit the quick deployment of SMR technology and, in turn, help to fulfill India’s commitment to chart its way to becoming net-zero by 2070.
- Research Article
18
- 10.1016/j.joule.2021.07.015
- Aug 1, 2021
- Joule
Evaluating and improving technologies for energy storage and backup power
- Conference Article
6
- 10.1109/sasg.2015.7449275
- Dec 1, 2015
Solar Photovoltaic (PV) and Wind power plants are becoming increasingly cost competitive when compared with conventional thermal power plants and in the not far future may set the ceiling price of electricity in many markets. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is internationally known for its hydrocarbon reserves but is less recognized for its renewable energy resources, especially wind energy. These renewable energy resources, although known as Variable Energy Resources (VERs), can be efficiently integrated into conventional power systems to provide stable and reliable electricity, whether for national power systems or for isolated Mini-grid power systems in KSA. Traditional capacity measures as Capacity Factor (CF) and Reserve Margin (RM) are not able to deal with the intermittency of Wind and PV power plants. Statistical and probabilistic measures coming from System's Adequacy methodology as Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC), Equivalent Firm Capacity (EFC) or Equivalent Conventional Power Plant (ECPP) are available to assess the capacity value of VERs. All of these methods are based on Generation Adequacy where VER is added to conventional power plants to fulfil the load. A case study was completed for a Mini-grid within the Saudi Electric Company's (SEC) Southern Operating Area (SOA) where the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) for the conventional thermal power plant was estimated and the addition of VER is assessed by using ELCC. Based on the available load data and VER profiles for PV a Capacity Credit of 51.8% was estimated, declining at a rate of 2.2% per MWp of additional installed capacity. The ELCC for Wind was estimated to be 19.4%, declining at a rate of 1.4% per MW of additional installed capacity. It was also found that using VER improves the system reliability in terms of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE). While excessive VER production does not impact LOLE it does impact the economics. A penetration of up to 25% wind or 30% PV does not result in curtailing VER production.
- Supplementary Content
20
- 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.02.020
- Mar 1, 2021
- One Earth
Tackling material constraints on the exponential growth of the energy transition
- Research Article
14
- 10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0032
- Nov 19, 2019
- IET Renewable Power Generation
As rooftops in cities are mostly underused, they have a large potential for decentralised electricity production. In that context, photovoltaic (PV) panels have proven to be an effective solution. Meanwhile, the market of small wind turbines is increasing, and some building owners have already installed one or more units on their roof. While the economic comparison between PV panels and wind turbines has already largely been addressed, in general, the space constraint of a rooftop has never been taken into account. In this work, the authors propose a methodology to compare the energy production and the return on investment both for rooftop‐mounted PV panels and wind turbines. The comparison is made for relatively tall buildings (≥60 m) with good wind conditions (≥5 m/s annual mean wind speed). Using a brute‐force approach, this study presents the results of the methodology applied to a case study: the Brussels Region. On tall rooftops, considering the space already taken by other installations and assuming an average wind speed of 5 m/s, small building‐mounted wind turbines are shown to produce more energy than PV panels. Nevertheless, their return on investment is always lower than that of the PV panels.
- Conference Article
- 10.1109/pedg.2017.7972444
- Apr 1, 2017
Large renewable power plants connected to the high-voltage network have the potential to make an important contribution to the grid's reactive power management. This is especially true when rather than using a predetermined Q characteristic, the system operator can control the power plant's reactive power output via a direct interface. However, the intermittent nature of the primary resources and today's reactive power requirements inhibit the permanent availability of reactive power from wind and photovoltaic (PV) power plants. This study shows that a synchronized, so-called symbiotic control of PV and wind power plants can vastly increase their capability of fulfilling reactive power demands. This is demonstrated by simulating the properties of a real PV and wind farm located in Germany. Furthermore, generating units coupled to the grid via power electronics have an even larger potential of providing reactive power when their P-Q characteristics are adapted. On the downside, this can lead to an undesired coupling of reactive and active power control in the grid. A symbiosis of wind farms and PV parks can once again improve this situation when smart power allocation methods are employed. An appropriate algorithm has been developed for this study and is tested on the above-mentioned simulation model.
- Conference Article
- 10.1115/es2013-18036
- Jul 14, 2013
India has always been victim of power failures or blackouts and the recent July 2012 countrywide blackout is a perfect example for it. It is expected that due to the widening gap between supply and demand, such instances of power failure would occur more regularly in future. Such blackouts are also be foreseen in other parts of the world. The electricity grids in many countries are highly centralized and are mostly dependent on fossil-fuel based energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas etc). Due to the rapid rise in the living standards of developing countries such as India and China, there is an increase in demand for electricity for running various appliances, as well as for heating and air-conditioning equipment. Such an increased in demand places tremendous strain on ailing centralized grid burning fossil fuel. The use of renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) could potentially allow large amount of demand to be met though alternative means and offset the demand on the grid. The advancement in technology has encouraged the implementation of renewable resources especially solar and wind. Hybrid power systems (HPS) that consist of these resources can significantly lower storage requirements. Furthermore, besides being cost-efficient, it is coherent to the weather conditions since solar and wind complement each other well. For highly efficient hybrid power systems to be developed, a significant degree of research must be applied to further their development. This includes tasks such as modeling these systems and applying proficient control algorithms to maximize efficiency. This paper focuses on simulation of an HPS consisting of a photovoltaic (PV) module, wind turbine (WT), and a lead acid battery through MATLAB/SIMULINK software. Moreover, a control algorithm is proposed, which leads to an efficient and autonomous operation of the HPS, along with maximizing power output from PV module and WT. The model and control system were tested using sample hourly solar radiation, temperature, and wind speed data to generate the power output from the PV module and WT, which was then processed through the proposed algorithm, to power a sample hourly load profile. The results indicate that a simple HPS can meet the type of load demand provided in an efficient and effective manner.
- Conference Article
2
- 10.1109/icaee.2014.6838549
- Jan 1, 2014
This paper describes a novel way of using the hybrid solar and wind energy effectively for pumping solution in rural parts of India. A hybrid generation system consist photo voltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT) and Battery to supply stable power to rural residential loads. DC/DC converters are used to control the power flow to the load and Maximum Power Point Tracker (MPPT) is used for maximum power extraction from the PV and WT and to compensate power fluctuation of renewable energy. When PV and WT generate power is lower than demand power, the Battery is controlled to discharge power to complete the difference of supply and demand power. If PV and WT generate power is higher than demand power, the Battery is charged. This system uses further Wireless sensor network (WSN) for monitoring the moisture content of the soil invarious parts of the cultivation land to maintain the moisture. The system was simulated by using MATLAB/Simulink.
- Research Article
33
- 10.1109/access.2021.3092145
- Jan 1, 2021
- IEEE Access
It is widely accepted that the integration of natural sources in distribution networks is becoming more attractive as they are sustainable and nonpolluting. This paper firstly proposes a modified Manta Ray Foraging Optimizer (MMRFO) to enhance the characteristic of MRFO technique. The modified MRFO technique is based on inserting the Simulated Annealing technique into the original MRFO to enhance the exploitation phase which is responsible for finding the promising region in the search area. Secondly, the developed technique is utilized for determining the best sizes and locations of multiple wind turbine (WT) and photovoltaic (PV) units in Radial Distribution System (RDS). The total system loss is taken as single-objective function to be minimized, considering the probabilistic nature of PV and WT output generation with variable load demand. Reactive loss sensitivity factor (QLSF) is utilized for obtaining the candidate locations up to fifty percent of total system buses with the aim of reducing the search space. Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) is used with PV to change it into a dispatchable supply. The changes in system performance by optimally integrating PV and WT alone or together are comprehensively studied. The proposed solution approach is applied for solving the standard IEEE 69 bus RDS. The obtained results demonstrate that installing PV and WT simultaneously achieves superior results than installing PV alone and WT alone in RDS. Further, simultaneous integration of WT and PV with BESS gives better results than simultaneous integration of WT and PV without BESS in RDS. The simulation results prove that the total system losses can be reduced by enabling the reactive power capability of PV inverters. The convergence characteristic shows that the modified MRFO gives the best solutions compared with the original MRFO algorithm.
- Research Article
3
- 10.1002/oca.2974
- Jan 17, 2023
- Optimal Control Applications and Methods
Special issue on “Optimal design and operation of energy systems”
- Research Article
223
- 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.110
- Feb 26, 2018
- Applied Energy
The role of electricity storage and hydrogen technologies in enabling global low-carbon energy transitions
- Research Article
- 10.9734/jenrr/2024/v16i11382
- Dec 7, 2024
- Journal of Energy Research and Reviews
Uganda’s interest in using solar energy for various applications began 20 years ago. However, there have been numerous reports by the public over the poor performance of the photovoltaic (PV) modules during their operations. This study determined the performance of selected PV modules openly sold in the Ugandan markets. The low-cost indoor line scanning system developed using locally available materials was used to assess the performance of each of the solar cells in the PV module by determining their photogenerated currents. In addition, the electrical characteristics of the PV modules were determined using the outdoor characterization method, which assumed the actual operation of the PV modules under direct sunlight. From the indoor line scans, the percentage of performing solar cells in the three PV modules of single-crystalline silicon (c-Si), multi-crystalline silicon (mc-Si), and amorphous silicon (a-Si) technologies were determined as 79%, 61%, and 95% respectively. The outdoor characterization results revealed that the c-Si, mc-Si, and a-Si PV modules had measured maximum power outputs of 18.5 W, 19.0 W, and 18.9 W, respectively and these were lower than the rated power values of 20 W. The line scan results had a direct relationship with the measured power output of the PV module, which implied that solar cells mismatch, affected the performance of the PV modules by lowering their performance. This developed testing system is affordable for developing countries with limited testing systems and would in the long run contribute to significant increase in the deployment of PV technology in Uganda since only performing PV modules would be allowed into the open market.
- Research Article
- 10.2478/ntpe-2019-0058
- Oct 1, 2019
- New Trends in Production Engineering
The publication presents the results of analysis of green energy from a hybrid PV panels and wind turbine farm use in Lebanon. Electricity is one of the most critical problems in Lebanon. This publication presents an effective solution to this issue. It deals with the generation of green environment friendly electricity from photovoltaic (PV) panels and wind turbine. The genuine idea consists of placing these panels and turbines at the middle of the coastal highway since it is considered as a free land. The produced energy is fed directly to the off gird after being inverted using appropriate devices. The middle of the highway from Tyre to Sidon is considered to apply this research. The actual design consists of 15222 PV panels placed in pairs on a steel chassis among the entire 27300 m coastal distance, 2 meters wide and 7610 vertical axis wind turbines placed at a distance of 0.9 m away from each pair of PV panels. The total energy produced by the PV system is estimated to 7.4 GWh/y and 3.1 GWh/y at an average wind velocity of 4.04 m/s. In addition to its benefit from a free land, the produced energy is environment friendly since there is no carbon dioxide emission.
- Research Article
6
- 10.17159/2413-3051/2021/v32i4a10356
- Dec 13, 2021
- Journal of Energy in Southern Africa
Many countries, including South Africa, have introduced policies and incentives to increase their renewable energy capacities in order to address environmental concerns and reduce pollutant emissions into the atmosphere. In addition, consumers in South Africa have faced the ever-increasing price of electricity and unreliability of the grid since 2007 due to the lack of sufficient electricity production. As a result, employing hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) have gained popularity. This research focuses on grid-connected HRESs based on solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and wind turbines as a potential way of reducing the dependency of residential sector consumers on the grid. It aims to identify the optimal sizing of renewable energy sources to be cost-effective for consumers over a certain period of time, using Durban as a case study. Two artificial intelligence methods have been used to obtain the optimal sizing for the available PV panels, wind turbines and inverters. The results shown that the combination of PV panels and battery storage can be a profitable option. A system using higher rated power PV panels can start to become profitable in a shorter lifetime, but employing batteries can only be cost-effective if a long enough lifetime is considered.
- Research Article
7
- 10.1080/15435075.2019.1671400
- Oct 4, 2019
- International Journal of Green Energy
ABSTRACTSolar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine technologies play a significant role in the world energy future. However, lack of awareness of the potential and relative value of renewables is a significant challenge in sustainable energy development. The potential of solar and wind energy sources in producing electricity to meet the electrical demands of the University of Lethbridge has been evaluated. Utilizing Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data and aerial photography to assess the solar photovoltaic electricity potential and wind turbine power curve concept to estimate the wind turbine electricity potential, a feasibility assessment for campus solar PV and wind turbine installations has been conducted. A comparison of the resulting solar PV and wind turbine generation over 5 years with the university electrical demand revealed that wind turbine and solar PV systems together could generate more than 3.6 times of the annual electricity consumption of the university on average. There is 1,015,808 m2 of suitable area available for placing a 46 MW solar PV system on the campus which would produce about 2.8 times of the university annual electricity usage on average. In addition, the proposed wind system could cover about 84% of the university electricity demand annually on average. Employing this system, the annual electricity cost of the university could decrease more than 90%. By installing renewable systems, the university can achieve a sustainable energy future.
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