Abstract
Spoilage or pathogenic bacteria in meats are influenced by extrinsic (temperature, atmosphere), intrinsic (pH, water activity) or process factors (preservatives) and by environmental changes. Duration of “lag” phase and slope of “log” phase are derived from laboratory experiments, by fitting “primary models”. These data are then described as a function of as few external factors as possible. These “secondary models” allow to “predict” microbial responses at various combinations of external factors. Primary and secondary models can be combined into software packages (“tertiary models”) which allow assessing food safety and shelf life and are essential to establish Food Safety Objectives and to conduct Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments.
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