Abstract
Eusocial honey bee populations (Apis mellifera) employ an age stratification organization of egg, larvae, pupae, hive bees and foraging bees. Understanding the recent decline in honey bee colonies hinges on understanding the factors that impact each of these different age castes. We first perform an analysis of steady state bee populations given mortality rates within each bee caste and find that the honey bee colony is highly susceptible to hive and pupae mortality rates. Subsequently, we study transient bee population dynamics by building upon the modeling foundation established by Schmickl and Crailsheim and Khoury et al. Our transient model based on differential equations accounts for the effects of pheromones in slowing the maturation of hive bees to foraging bees, the increased mortality of larvae in the absence of sufficient hive bees, and the effects of food scarcity. We also conduct sensitivity studies and show the effects of parameter variations on the colony population.
Highlights
IntroductionHoney bees contribute more than 15 billion dollars to the US economy through their vital role in pollinating fruits, nuts and vegetables [1]
87 of the most prominent 115 food crops rely on animal pollination
While the colony has many positive and negative feedback loops controlling bee maturation mediated by a large number of pheromones and mechanical processes, we focus on two specific pheromones
Summary
Honey bees contribute more than 15 billion dollars to the US economy through their vital role in pollinating fruits, nuts and vegetables [1]. US honey bee colonies have experienced a steady decline from 6 million colonies in 1947 to 2.5 million today. The declines have been even more acute. Recent winter losses in Europe have a ranged from 3.5% to 33.6% [2]. Many agree that the decline of honey bees (Apis mellifera) is due to many factors which include the Varroa destructor mite, bee viruses, the microsporidian protozoa Nosema ceranae, pesticides, environmental stresses, and bee management practices [3,4,5]. Due to the expense and difficulty in studying each of these stresses separately or in combination in the field, researchers have designed mathematical models of bee populations
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