Abstract
Wildland firefighting requires managers to make decisions in complex decision environments that hold many uncertainties; these decisions need to be adapted dynamically over time as fire behavior evolves. Models used in firefighting decisions should also have the capability to adapt to changing conditions. In this paper, detailed line construction constraints are presented for use with a stochastic mixed integer fire growth and behavior program. These constraints allow suppression actions to interact dynamically with stochastic predicted fire behavior and account for many of the detailed line construction considerations. Such considerations include spatial restrictions for fire crew travel and operations. Crew safety is also addressed; crews must keep a variable safety buffer between themselves and the fire. Fireline quality issues are accounted for by comparing control line capacity with fireline intensity to determine when a fireline will hold. The model assumes crews may work at varying production rates throughout their shifts, providing flexibility to fit work assignments with the predicted fire behavior. Nonanticipativity is enforced to ensure solutions are feasible for all modeled weather scenarios. Test cases demonstrate the model’s utility and capability on a raster landscape.
Highlights
Wildland firefighting requires that managers make decisions to manage risk within complex decision environments that hold many uncertainties
The outcome of fire suppression actions hinge on future fire behavior, which is highly dependent upon weather (e.g., [4,5,6,7,8,9,10])
Our results demonstrate the value of modeling additional details of fire suppression using this stochastic mixed integer programming (SMIP) framework
Summary
Wildland firefighting requires that managers make decisions to manage risk within complex decision environments that hold many uncertainties. Some of the challenges for managers include determining when and where to place firefighting activities, what those activities should be, how many and what type of firefighting resources are available and which are the best fit for the fire management tasks that must be completed [1,2,3] Managers must make these assignments while balancing a variety of risks including loss of life to both firefighters and the public; loss of infrastructure such as buildings and power lines; loss of natural resources such as habitat for wildlife, timber, and recreation areas; and damage that threatens water quality [1,2,3]. A fireline built to withstand a low intensity fire [10] may contain the fire as long as the fire is still low intensity when it encounters the fireline
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