Modeling for Prediction of Land Cover Changes Based on Bio-physical and Human Factors in Zagros Mountains, Iran

Abstract

The rapid population growth and ongoing development activities has resulted in natural resources demolition. However, the dynamics of the natural resources in relation to different biophysical and socio-economic factors are still remains poorly understood. The present study investigates the basic natural resources i.e. forest, rangeland and surface water bodies’ status using satellite data for the years 1990, 1998, and 2006, and their change detection in relation to biophysical and socio-economic factors. Monitoring land-use/cover change detection using remotely sensed data has been a well recognized technique. The analysis of change detection revealed eleven important land cover changes, which occurred during the past 16 years (1990–2006) in the region. The rate of land cover change was observed to vary across the sub periods and a general decline of forest cover and increase in rangelands and water bodies was observed. Logistic regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between changes and explanatory factors. The land cover change results and logistic models developed in this study are useful in supporting natural resources management efforts and provide useful information for managers/policy makers in formulation of sustainable management strategies for the region.