Modeling and Monitoring of Drought for forecasting it, to Reduce Natural hazards Atmosphere in western and north western part of Iran, Iran

Abstract

The phenomenon of drought has a lot of damage every year in different parts of human life. The drought is not specific to the region, and it affects different parts of the world. One of these areas is Northwest of Iran, which suffered from this phenomenon in recent years. The purpose of this study is to model, analyze, and predict the drought in Northwest of Iran. To do this, climatic parameters (precipitation, temperature, sunshine, minimum relative humidity, and wind speed) of 21 stations were used in the period of 32 years (1987–2018). For modeling of the TIBI fuzzy index, first, four indicators (SET, SPI, SEB, and MCZI) were been fuzzy in MATLAB software. Then, the indices were compared and the Topsis model was used for prioritizing areas involved with drought. Results showed that the new fuzzy index of T.I.B.I. for classifying drought reflected four above indicators with high accuracy. Of these five climatic parameters used in this study, the temperature parameter had the most effect on the fluctuation of drought severity. The severity of the drought was more based on a 12-month scale modeling than 6 months. The longest drought persistence in the study area occurred in Urmia Station in the 12-month period from July 2003 to December 2004. The highest percentage of drought occurrence was at Urmia station on a 12-month scale and the lowest was in Sanandaj station on a 6-month scale.