Model selection in time series analysis: using information criteria as an alternative to hypothesis testing

Abstract

PurposeThe issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several competitive models. A typical approach to dealing with this is classic hypothesis testing using an arbitrarily chosen significance level based on the underlying assumption that a true null hypothesis exists. In this paper, the authors investigate how successful the traditional hypothesis testing approach is in determining the correct model for different data generating processes using time series data. An alternative approach based on more formal model selection techniques using an information criterion or cross-validation is also investigated.Design/methodology/approachMonte Carlo simulation experiments on various generating processes are used to look at the response surfaces resulting from hypothesis testing and response surfaces resulting from model selection based on minimizing an information criterion or the leave-one-out cross-validation prediction error.FindingsThe authors find that the minimization of an information criterion can work well for model selection in a time series environment, often performing better than hypothesis-testing strategies. In such an environment, the use of an information criterion can help reduce the number of models for consideration, but the authors recommend the use of other methods also, including hypothesis testing, to determine the appropriateness of a model.Originality/valueThis paper provides an alternative approach for selecting the best potential model among many for time series data. It demonstrates how minimizing an information criterion can be useful for model selection in a time-series environment in comparison to some standard hypothesis testing strategies.