Model of Correction of Errors of the Current Account of the Balance of Payments of Azerbaijan, Taking Into Account Macroeconomic Indicators and World Oil Prices

Crude Oil, which has long been a mainstay sector in Indonesia's exports, contributes greatly to state revenue, thus driving the pace of national economic growth. In the context of the Indonesian economy, the crude oil industry plays an indispensable role, especially over the past few decades. This study aims to identify the factors that affect the volume of Indonesia's crude oil exports to nine main destination countries—including Japan, South Korea, China, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, the United States, and Taiwan—in the period from 2003 to 2022. Some of the variables analyzed include exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices. Through the regression analysis method of panel data, the results of this study indicate that simultaneously, exchange rates, foreign investment, production, and world oil prices have a significant effect on Indonesia's crude oil exports to these countries. Separately, the world exchange rate and oil price variables had a significant negative influence on Indonesia's crude oil export volume, while the foreign investment and production variables showed a positive and significant influence on export volume during the 2003-2022 research period.

This study examined the influence of the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) on world oil price. Data on world oil price, OPEC oil supply, world oil demand and world inflation were sourced from various publications of OPEC, and analysed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test, Breusch Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test, and variance inflation factor (VIF) test for multicollinearity. The result of the ADF unit root test showed that OPEC oil supply was stationary at level, while world oil price, world oil demand and world inflation were stationary at first difference. The result of the ARDL bounds test confirmed that the variables are related in the long run given that the ARDL F-statistic value of 5.261561 is greater than the upper critical bound value of 3.67. Further findings revealed that a unit increase in oil supply by OPEC led to a 0.412751 unit increase in world oil price, while a unit increase in world oil demand resulted in a 2.813161 unit increase in world oil price. A unit increase in world inflation caused world oil price to increase by 0.345 unit. Based on the respective probability values which are less than the 0.05 level of significance, the study concludes that OPEC oil supply, world oil demand and world inflation, all impacted significantly on world oil price. This study recommends among others that, nations must continue to source for sustainable and dependable alternatives to crude oil.

The paper examines a systematic interrelationship between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices, taking the role of the USD and the perceived global market risks into consideration for the period from January 1990 to June 2013. The authors initially determine the significant cross-sectional dependence in a large balanced panel framework for 27 commodity prices, and then apply the second generation panel unit root (PUR) tests. Findings from the PUR tests clearly suggest that there is a strong unit root in agricultural commodity prices. In addition, the empirical findings from the fixed effects panel data, panel co-integration analysis, the Panel-Wald Causality tests, and the common correlated effects mean group estimations strongly show that the world oil price and the weak USD have positive impacts on almost all agricultural commodity prices. There are also retained the adjuvant effects of the escalatory perceived global market risk upon most agricultural commodity prices.  

An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve

PurposeThis paper aims to analyse the asymmetric impacts of world oil price on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam, including domestic oil price, inflation and output growth.Design/methodology/approachThe mixed data sampling (MIDAS) approach is employed to examine the impact of world oil price changes on macroeconomic variables as the former is high-frequency data (daily), and the latter is low-frequency data, usually monthly or quarterly.FindingsChanges in world oil price cause asymmetric impacts on domestic oil price and inflation, but no significant effects on output growth. In terms of magnitude, a positive change in world oil price causes a stronger effect than a negative change in world oil price. In terms of timing, a positive change in world oil price causes a slow pass-through impact on domestic oil price and inflation. Meanwhile, domestic oil price and inflation decrease quickly following a negative change in world oil price.Originality/valueThis study investigates the asymmetric impact of oil price on the Vietnam economy in terms of both magnitude and timing, which is not explored by previous studies. In addition, it exploits daily information of oil price changes to analyse macroeconomic variables in lower frequency by employing MIDAS approach.

This study aims to determine and analyze the effects ofIndonesian Rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, and world gold priceson IDX Composite in 2016. This research utilizedGeneralized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) method on 234 daily observations throughout the whole year. This study results demonstrated that the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate has a significant and negative impact, while the world gold and oil prices have a significant and positive impact on the IDX Composite in 2016. In addition to these results, the discovery and usage of GARCH method as the optimum econometric model found the variance of residuals of IDX Composite in 2016, which is also affected by the previous day residuals, but it is not affected by the variance of previous days residuals.

This study aims to determine the analysis of inflation in terms of demand and supply in Indonesia in 2000-2018, the variables studied are the exchange rate, loan interest rates, world oil prices, public consumption. The type of time series data with the analytical method used in this study is using simple linear regression analysis and multiple linear regression (OLS) methods. The results of the trend of each variable inflation, exchange rate, interest rates on loans, world oil prices and public consumption fluctuate and have a tendency to increase with average inflation of 2.71%, the exchange rate of Rp. 14,143, the loan interest rate of 12.15%, the price of world oil is 91.67% and Indonesian people's consumption is 6,850,384 billion rupiah. The results of simple linear regression and multiple linear regression are shown through the simultaneous test (F test) that the exchange rate, loan interest rate, world oil price, and public consumption have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. The results of the partial test (t-test) show that the loan interest rate and world oil prices have a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia and public consumption has a negative and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia, while the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on inflation in Indonesia. Keywords: Inflation, Exchange rate, Loan interest rate, World oil price, Community consumption

How is China's coke price related with the world oil price? The role of extreme movements

In a number of countries, an important economic problem is the imbalance of foreign economic relations, which manifests itself, in particular, in the positive and negative balances of the current account of the balance of payments. The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of rising oil prices on Azerbaijan’s balance of payments using a vector error correction model (VECM). In the paper, the analysis correctly applied econometric methods, the necessary statistical procedures to determine the order of integration of non-stationary time series of Azerbaijan’s current account balance and the prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate, covering the period from 1995 to 2024, to identify and evaluation of the model parameters to check the adequacy and validity of the forecast values both in the short term and in a long term. When constructing survey graphs and implementing econometric test procedures, the Eviews and Excel application packages were used. As a result of this study, a VECM was formulated, which makes it possible to carry out an economic and statistical analysis of the functioning of the current account of the balance of payments and world oil prices. The constructed models make it possible to measure both deviations from the equilibrium state and the rate of equilibrium recovery. It is concluded that the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables can be considered stable, as stability is restored in short periods after disturbances from shock reactions to changes in world oil prices. The constructed models make it possible to measure both deviations from the equilibrium state and the rate of equilibrium restoration.

policy changes that are intended to reduce the extent of federal price regulation for crude oil and natural gas in Canada. In this paper, we first examine the likely extent and meaning of deregulation for Canadian oil and natural gas, including the impact on Canada of natural gas price deregulation in the United States. Since these policy changes are being made in an environment of considerable uncertainty about the future level of world oil prices, we use the MACE model to assess the effects of lower and higher world oil prices on the aggregate economy, and on the revenues of the petroleum industry, the governments of the producing provinces, and of the federal government. We also compare these effects under deregulation with those under the modified National Energy Program (NEP) regime, wherein some, but not all, domestic oil prices move to match changes in world oil prices. Finally, we shall use our model results to assess the need for, and consequences of, further changes that have been suggested for energy taxation in Canada, including the modification or removal of the Petroleum and Gas Revenue Tax (PGRT), and some 'standby' system for insulating Canadian energy consumers and producers from the effects of very large swings in world oil prices. For Canadian crude oil pricing, the current pivot point is the regulated price for old oil, since all other prices are determined by reference to it. Producers of old oil receive it directly, while producers of synthetic oil or of conventional oil from pools discovered since 1974, or produced from in-fill drilling of fields discovered previously, receive a supplementary payment to bring their price up to the New Oil Reference Price (the NORP) which has a built-in quality differential linked to the posted price for an equivalent quality of international crude oil. Oil importers receive a subsidy based on the difference between the old oil price and an import reference price, and oil exporters pay an export tax which is set so as to approximate the difference between the old oil price and the US market price for comparable crudes, with adjustment for transport costs in both cases. The basis for the price to Canadian oil users is the old oil price plus the Petroleum Compensation Charge (PCC) and the Canadian Ownership Special Charge (COSC). Under the 1981 Energy Agreements, the PCC was supposed to be adjusted so as to cover the sum of the subsidy payments to users of imported oil and the price supplements paid to producers of new oil, synthetic oil, and other categories receiving higher prices. However, during most of 1984 the required increases in the PCC were not made, and even after the increase in November 1984 there remained a

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of world gold and oil prices on the 2016-2019 period composite stock price index (IHSG). This research is a quantitative study with panel funds regression estimation (time series). This study uses secondary data types in the form of gold, world oil and IHSG prices. This data analysis technique uses multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the analysis results it can be explained that the partial test / t-test statistic shows that the gold price variable has no influence on the 2016-2019 IHSG period. While world oil has an influence on the 2016-2019 IHSG. The F Test results can be explained that simultaneously the world gold and world oil price variables have an influence on the 2016-2019 IHSG period. From the results of the test of the coefficient of determination can be found that the variable world price of gold and oil can affect the CSPI by 75%.

The World oil prices shocks is believed become the main important role to movements marketing margins of agricultural commodities, include coffee. We aim to investigate the impact of world oil prices shocks on coffee marketing margins for Indonesia. We decompose world oil prices into positive and negative shocks to investigate the asymmetric impacts on marketing margins. For this aims, we adopt a NARDL model to capture the asymmetric impacts both in long and short run. We found that a decrease in oil price has a positive and significant impact on marketing margins, while a decrease in oil price has a significant negative impact. An increase in world oil prices lead to reduce marketing margins. Similarly, a decrease in world oil prices, also impact on the reduction of marketing margins. We therefore conclude that impacts of world oil prices shocks on marketing margins not only asymmetric in magnitude but also in direction. Particularly, the result of the NARDL estimation reveal that negative shock in oil prices has more pronounced impact than positive shocks on the reduction of marketing margin. This result implies that Indonesian coffee producers more benefit when the world oil price decreases compare than increases.Keywords: Oil prices, marketing margin, coffee producers and NARDL modelJEL Classifications: C32, F13, F43, G13.DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11857

This study aims to determine the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation and the selected sectoral indices, namely the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors. This study uses a stationary test, cointegration test, and Granger causality test with Eviews10 software. The population of this research is sectoral index, rupiah exchange rate, inflation and world oil prices. While the samples of this research are the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation, the mining sector, the financial sector, and the basic and chemical industry sector for the period January 2017 – March 2021. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of time series data. Data collection techniques used the documentation method taken in the form of monthly data through the official websites www.idx.co.id, www.bi.go.id, and www.investing.com. The results of this study indicate that the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation, the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors are stationary at the first difference level. The results of the Johansen Test show that there is no cointegration between variables in this study. There is a causality between inflation and the mining sector, the basic and chemical industry sector and the rupiah exchange rate as well as a causality between the financial sector, the mining sector, and the basic and chemical industrial sector and world oil prices. Furthermore, the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, and inflation have an impact on the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors.

This paper tries to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the world oil prices from a multidimensional graphical perspective. The alternative multidimensional graphical is based on a new graphical method, the “Infinity Physical Space (I-Physical Space)”. The I-Physical Space can show the world oil prices from a multi-dimensional point of view in shorter or longer periods of time systematically. To analyze the behavior of world oil prices, we divided historical data from April 2019 to April 2020. In this study, the behavior of world oil prices have two categories, namely stable oil prices range and unstable oil prices range. The application of the I-Physical Space framework allows us to identify periods of world oil price volatility easily. Our findings indicate that the volatility of oil prices is heavily affected from any massive pandemic such as the case of COVID-19 anytime and anywhere.