Abstract
Model proposed in this paper can be used to predict oil outflow event, caused by the tanker accident, probability distribution in different sectors of navigation area. The use of expert judgment techniques to obtain necessary data for application of the model ensures that all relevant available information (world and regional marine accident statistics, factors inherent to navigational area in question) will be duly taken into account. Model is designed for the Lithuanian responsibility sea area; the assessment of probability of oil outflow event and its distribution in different sectors of the area is performed.
Highlights
Among other sources of pollution at sea, oil outflow from tankers during the accident poses the biggest threat to the marine environment [1]
Approach, proposed in this article ensures, that final result is obtained by complex evaluation of ship accident statistics, particulars of tankers operating in navigational area, as well as other dominating factors which may increase the reliability of the research
Estimation of oil outflow event probability, as well as evaluation of factors having influence on it, is relevant, firstly, to assessment of risk, posed by tankers operating in particular navigational area, secondly, to selection of measures, related to mitigation of hazards posed by tankers to the marine environment, and lastly, to risk-based dislocation of oil pollution combating means
Summary
Among other sources of pollution at sea, oil outflow from tankers during the accident poses the biggest threat to the marine environment [1]. Having available the probability distribution in different segments of sea area and estimated quantity of oil spilt during the tanker accident [2], calculation of risk posed by tankers for each of the segments of the sea area can be performed. The level of such risk is mostly needed in two cases:. The method proposed in this paper is based on the modelling of pollution process from tanker by using event tree analysis and by distributing pollution event probability to different zones of sea area and to possible tanker accident categories. As additional source of data, the proposed methodology in certain cases may supplement the emergency situations in terminal probability model [3], and the theory of assessment of statistical probability of the technological transportation process [4]
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