Abstract
BackgroundWe estimate the effect on light, moderate and heavy consumers of alcohol from implementing a minimum unit price for alcohol (MUP) compared with a uniform volumetric tax.MethodsWe analyse scanner data from a panel survey of demographically representative households (n = 885) collected over a one-year period (24 Jan 2010–22 Jan 2011) in the state of Victoria, Australia, which includes detailed records of each household's off-trade alcohol purchasing.FindingsThe heaviest consumers (3% of the sample) currently purchase 20% of the total litres of alcohol (LALs), are more likely to purchase cask wine and full strength beer, and pay significantly less on average per standard drink compared to the lightest consumers (A$1.31 [95% CI 1.20–1.41] compared to $2.21 [95% CI 2.10–2.31]). Applying a MUP of A$1 per standard drink has a greater effect on reducing the mean annual volume of alcohol purchased by the heaviest consumers of wine (15.78 LALs [95% CI 14.86–16.69]) and beer (1.85 LALs [95% CI 1.64–2.05]) compared to a uniform volumetric tax (9.56 LALs [95% CI 9.10–10.01] and 0.49 LALs [95% CI 0.46–0.41], respectively). A MUP results in smaller increases in the annual cost for the heaviest consumers of wine ($393.60 [95% CI 374.19–413.00]) and beer ($108.26 [95% CI 94.76–121.75]), compared to a uniform volumetric tax ($552.46 [95% CI 530.55–574.36] and $163.92 [95% CI 152.79–175.03], respectively). Both a MUP and uniform volumetric tax have little effect on changing the annual cost of wine and beer for light and moderate consumers, and likewise little effect upon their purchasing.ConclusionsWhile both a MUP and a uniform volumetric tax have potential to reduce heavy consumption of wine and beer without adversely affecting light and moderate consumers, a MUP offers the potential to achieve greater reductions in heavy consumption at a lower overall annual cost to consumers.
Highlights
Alcohol consumption is among the top three risk factors for global disease burden, accounting for 5.5% of disability-adjusted life years lost, behind tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6.3%) and high blood pressure (7.0%) [1]
Our analysis reveals that a minimum unit price for alcohol (MUP) would achieve greater reductions in heavy consumption than a new uniform volumetric tax, it would achieve this at a lower cost to consumers
We find that there is no significant cost increase for light and moderate consumers of beer or wine resulting from any of the three different tax pass-through rates tested, and that it is mostly heavy consumers that are affected by a new uniform volumetric tax on alcohol, irrespective of the tax pass-through rates assumed
Summary
Alcohol consumption is among the top three risk factors for global disease burden, accounting for 5.5% of disability-adjusted life years lost, behind tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6.3%) and high blood pressure (7.0%) [1]. At the time of writing, the Scottish legislation is yet to be implemented amid legal challenges from a number of European countries [8]. This highlights the fierceness of debate regarding such policies and the critical importance of building the empirical evidence base to inform decision-making in the area. We estimate the effect on light, moderate and heavy consumers of alcohol from implementing a minimum unit price for alcohol (MUP) compared with a uniform volumetric tax
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