Military Compliance and Rebellion: Who Is the Audience of a Mass Killing?

Abstract

Reducing threats is an important objective of all governments. Mass killings are a tactic employed by some leaderships, presumably to achieve this goal. But do mass killings work''? We argue that the groups targeted by violence are rarely the primary audience of mass killing policies, and to determine the true effectiveness of mass killings one must account for how all groups within a country respond to political violence. We develop a theory that focuses on how the compliance decisions of military members tasked with carrying out atrocities affect the coordination dilemma of individuals contemplating rebellion. Mass killings are shown to be effective at reducing anti-regime activity among individuals who are not direct targets of violence. Further, leaders enjoy a lower risk of removal following highly lethal mass killings. A variety of empirical tests provide strong support for our theory's implications.