Migration processes in modern Russia and their impact on economic and national security

Розглянуто основні тенденції, які існують у міграційній сфері України. Доведено, що ефективна міграційна політика має прямий вплив на забезпечення збалансованого економічного та соціального розвитку держави. Визначено основні напрями удосконалення державної міграційної політики України з врахуванням впливу загроз національній і соціальній безпеці на сучасному етапі.

The purpose of the article is to disclose the migratory threats which are connected with external and mass internal inter-regional migrations, which are caused by the annexation of the Crimea and military aggression in Donbas by Russia. Methodological and practical aspects of improving the management of intensive interstate and inter-regional migratory processes, negative consequences of which threaten national security of the country because of hybrid war in Donbas, illegal migration, worsening of the demographic situation, departure of scientists and specialists abroad are described in the article too. The main strategic objective, which consists of maintenance of state sovereignty, territorial integrity of Ukraine, and also integration in European and migratory space, ensuring close to the world standards of quality and length of life, realization of rights and freedoms of citizens, is formulated. Actions and tasks of the state migratory policy, ways and methods of regulation of external migrations of the population are considered. Principal reasons of external migrations of population are identified and analysed. The inwardly-regional, interregional and intergovernmental migrations of population of Ukraine in the years of its state independence (1991- 2014) are analyzed in details. The results of analysis showed that migratory activity goes down on inwardly-regional and interregional levels. Also intensity of exchange of population went down between the regions of country. At the same time Ukraine for years state independence through depopulation processes lost 6,5 million persons, and in the external migratory moving of population of loss made over 1 million persons. The problem of illegal external labour migration is considered. It is noted that illegal migration from Ukraine to the threats to national security in the Law of Ukraine "On the National Security of Ukraine" is not included, and a threat to national security posed by illegal migration from Ukraine state authorities and management of both central and local underestimated. Attention is accented on that adjusting of migratory processes at the macrolevel must become to the ponderable component of socio-economic policy of the state, and the measures of migratory policy consist of that to obtain organization of migratory space of country and take under effective state control those migratory processes that take place in it. Proposals concerning perspective and effective actions of the state migratory policy of Ukraine in regulating migratory movement of the population from the positions of national priorities and regional peculiarities, and also personal needs of migrants and prevention of migratory threats to national security of Ukraine are formulated. It is determined that the decisive role in the regulation of labour migration processes, as a whole in Ukraine and its regions, belonging to the management of social-economic factors, such as living conditions and employment of people who can change as a result of redistribution of the state budget, wage-fund, public forms of consumption.

With the development of globalization processes and sufficient free movement of labor, and skilled personnel, the problem of legal and illegal migration has gradually become part of public policy for many countries. The aim of the article is to determine the priorities of the state migration policy for legal, illegal migrants and refugees and to form recommendations for the development of clear and transparent rules of the state migration policy taking into account the international legal field and in the context of economic security. An analysis of the main trends in the migration processes was conducted and it was found that over the past 30 years there has been a rapid increase in the number of international migrants and refugees, which puts pressure on the economies of host countries. It has been proven that migration affects the main components of national security, and the impact on the country's economic security is particularly pronounced. As a result, national security requirements must be taken into account when formulating state migration policy. The main components of the state migration policy were identified, the analysis of the main theories and approaches to the migration policy in relation to legal migration was carried out. The main problems of the state policy on illegal migration and refugees have been identified. The state migration policy is analyzed on the example of the EU countries and their overcoming of the migration crisis and the refugee crisis. The state determines the main priorities of migration policy based on national and economic security requirements. There are two main aspects of state migration policy: targeted attraction of immigrants and policy on illegal migration and refugees. There are three main approaches to attracting immigrants - encouraging all types of immigration, creating maximum barriers to immigration, and encouraging specific target groups of immigrants. With regard to illegal immigration, the state can take a tough stance or allow it to replenish the workforce. State policy on refugees is determined by the norms of international law. It has been argued that national migration policies need to be adapted to the current world economy, and that the main priorities include transparency, long-term forecasting of labor market needs, clear criteria for migrant admission and combating illegal migration, which is part of international crime.

Migration research and analysis: Growth, reach and recent contributions of research and analysis being produced on migration is important for those working on migration policies, studying migration, or wanting to develop an informed opinion on migration.It is important to highlight at the outset that there are fundamental differences in the publishing processes for academic and non-academic material, and each has its strengths and weaknesses.The academic publishing system is largely focused on producing journal articles and books.This process typically involves multi-stage reviews and editorial comments involving authors, editors and reviewers.Most published academic research ("white" literature) is behind paywalls (that is, not freely accessible), and often managed by commercial publishers.In contrast, the production of research and analysis publications outside of academic publishing ("grey" literature) generally involves faster and simpler processes that are typically, although not always, characterized by more limited peer review.Contributions from grey literature (such as research reports, working papers and government/official documents) are usually freely available.A report such as this, designed to contribute to our collective understanding of migration and mobility in an increasingly interconnected world, would clearly be incomplete without describing the role of grey literature, which has been "recognized as a key source of evidence, argument, innovation, and understanding". 6 The volume, diversity and growth of both white and grey literature preclude a systematic review of all the material produced and published on migration in 2017 and 2018.Instead, this chapter highlights examples of key contributions made during this period, published in English by a selection of academic journals and intergovernmental organizations.It provides an update to the chapter in World Migration Report 2018, including by focusing on different academic journals and intergovernmental organizations, and their key output in 2017 and 2018. 7 The next section provides an overview of the different actors involved in migration research and analysis.The third section features recent, selected contributions from academia and intergovernmental organizations, and the reach and impact of some of the migration research materials published. Main producers of migration research and analysis AcademiaIdeally, researchers create new knowledge that is supported by strong evidence and is useful for others.Research findings are produced for, and disseminated to, different target audiences.Traditional academic work can be highly technical and narrowly focused, although academic researchers are increasingly encouraged to disseminate their work beyond academic spheres. 8 Researchers analysing policy-relevant issues are often keen to engage with policymakers to impart knowledge that can inform policy deliberations and help shape policymaking -this is especially the case with migration.Effective research contributions for policy audiences tend to take the form of short papers and blog articles, as well as policy workshops and interactive expert meetings.6 GreyNet International, 2014.7 In order to ensure, to the extent possible, that this chapter provides a comprehensive "stand-alone" overview of migration research and analysis in 2017 and 2018, we have drawn upon key background and context material included in the

Problem statement. The globalization of economic development factors, the development of world economic relations is manifested, in particular, in the formation of the international labor market, stimulating the growth of external labor migration. These processes fully affect Russia and sharply actualize the need for the institutional and regulatory arrangement of developing migration processes. The implementation of the necessary steps to solve existing problems runs into the preservation of traditional ideas about the content of external labor migration, the existing regulatory framework, and the established forms of institutional interaction at the federal and regional levels. Purpose of the study consists in substantiating the need to develop the concept of external labor migration as a phenomenon having a complex structure of a single nature of multidirectional flows of external labor migration – labor emigration from Russia and labor immigration to Russia. As a research task, the authors determined the development at the conceptual level of the basic category, the definition of the system of legal tools included in the administrative-regulation mechanism of external labor migration in modern Russia. Methods. The work methodology is determined by general scientific, special and private-scientific methods of cognition, which made it possible to comprehensively study the problems of administrative and legal regulation of external labor migration in modern Russia. The work was carried out on the basis of the use of such general scientific research methods as comparative legal, formal legal and institutional legal modeling. In the course of the study, system-structural and logical approaches to the study were applied. The analysis of external labor migration in the proposed sense requires new approaches. In its most general form, this can be represented as a «reverse» dichotomous analysis. Results. The analysis and generalization of existing traditional approaches to understanding external labor migration is carried out and the need to overcome them is substantiated. The theoretical foundations are determined and the author's interpretation of the concept of external labor migration as a whole economic and legal phenomenon, consisting of relatively autonomous, but organically connected exit and entry labor flows, is proposed. The necessity of improving legal regulation, a new level of institutional interaction of public administration bodies at the federal and regional levels on the regulation of external labor migration flows in the context of Russia's economic development is substantiated. Conclusions. Ensuring the national interests of Russia involves the search for adequate organizational and legal measures to implement the strategic goals of improving the management of migration processes. The definition of the modern vector of state policy in the field of external labor migration should be based on a new conceptual theoretical basis. Migration legislation in the field of external labor migration needs to be codified, developed and adopted an independent federal law «On External Labor Migration». An important step in improving migration policy is the development of new forms of institutional interaction at the federal and regional levels.

Object: to identify the main trends in external and internal migration in Kazakhstan, to study the characteristics of its different flows, and to describe the economic and demographic factors affecting migration processes. Migration processes in the Republic of KazakhstanMethods: methods of system, dynamic and structural analysis, and methods of studying cause-andeffect relationships.Results: We have identified trends in external and internal migration in Kazakhstan in the last decade; we have studied the characteristic features of migration flows in Kazakhstan and the factors affecting the migration activity of the population; we have addressed the issue of unregulated migration in Kazakhstan and described the risks associated with it, as well as the possibility of migration policies in addressing this issue.Conclusions: In recent years, the negative balance of external migration has been growing; there is a net outflow from Kazakhstan. The intensity of ethnic repatriation of Kazakhs, which previously would block the flow of emigration, is now decreasing. Measures are needed to halt the outflow of migrants from Kazakhstan and to encourage immigration into Kazakhstan. In recent years, the state has been actively pursuing an internal migration policy: mechanism for registering migrants within the country has been strengthened, and a quota has been established for resettlement to the northern and north-eastern regions of Kazakhstan.

Міжнародна міграція є глобальним явищем, складність, обсяг і вплив
\nякого на економічний розвиток країн постійно зростають. Метою статті є
\nдослідження особливостей зовнішніх міграційних процесів в Україні і світі,
\nаналіз факторів та основних тенденцій, визначення причин зовнішньої трудової
\nміграції населення та їх наслідків для соціально-економічного розвитку нашої
\nкраїни, розкриття існуючих загроз та негативних наслідків міжнародної трудової
\nміграції для мігрантів та економіки України. Методологія дослідження обсягів і
\nдинаміки міграційних процесів, особливостей розвитку міграційної політики в
\nУкраїні і світі ґрунтуєтьсь на застосуванні загальнонаукових та спеціальних
\nметодів наукового пізнання: діалектичного, системного підходів, соціологічного
\nопитування, порівняння, статистичного аналізу. Особливу увагу приділено
\nвизначенню соціально-економічних причин та наслідків міжнародної міграції
\nробочої сили з України. Проаналізовано напрями української трудової міграції,
\nз урахуванням вікових груп та секторів зайнятості вітчизняних трудових
\nмігрантів. Запропоновано основні підходи щодо вдосконалення державної
\nміграційної політики на основі регулювання трудоміграційних процесів в
\nУкраїні, уповільнення динаміки міграції населення, утримання чисельності та
\nструктури населення на рівні, що забезпечує підтримку господарської освоєності
\nтериторій, удосконалення національного міжнародного законодавства,
\nпризупинення міграційних витрат, створення умов для зворотної міграції когорти
\nукраїнських громадян, які працюють за кордоном тощо.
\nInternational migration is a global phenomenon, with its complexity, volume
\nand influence on the economic development of countries constantly increasing.
\nThe aim of the article is to study the state of external migration processes in Ukraine and the world, analyze factors and main trends, determine the causes of external labor
\npopulation migration and their consequences for the social and economic development
\nof our country, reveal the existing threats and negative consequences of the
\ninternational labor migration for the migrants and the economy of Ukraine.
\nThe methodology of researching the scope and dynamics of migration processes,
\nthe specific features of the migration policy development in Ukraine and the world is
\nbased on the application of general scientific and special methods of the scientific
\nresearch: dialectical, systematic approaches, sociological survey, comparison,
\nstatistical analysis. A particular attention is paid to the identification of the social and
\neconomic causes and consequences of the international labor migration from Ukraine.
\nThe directions of the Ukrainian labor migration, taking into account the age groups and
\nemployment sectors of domestic labor migrants, are analyzed. The main approaches to
\nimproving the state migration policy based on the regulation of labor migration
\nprocesses in Ukraine, slowing the dynamics of the population migration, the retention
\nof the population number and structure at the level providing support for the territories
\neconomic development, improvement of the national international legislation,
\nsuspension of migration expenditures, creation of conditions for the cohort of
\nUkrainian citizens working abroad reverse migration, etc.
\nМеждународная миграция является глобальным явлением, сложность,
\nобъем и влияние которого на экономическое развитие стран постоянно растут.
\nЦелью статьи является исследование особенностей внешних миграционных
\nпроцессов в Украине и мире, анализ факторов и основных тенденций,
\nопределение причин внешней трудовой миграции населения и их последствий
\nдля социально-экономического развития нашей страны, раскрыты
\nсуществующие угрозы и негативные последствия международной трудовой
\nмиграции для мигрантов и экономики Украины. Методология исследования
\nобъемов и динамики миграционных процессов, особенностей развития
\nмиграционной политики в Украине и мире основывается на применении
\nобщенаучных и специальных методов научного познания: диалектического,
\nсистемного подходов, социологического опроса, сравнения, статистического
\nанализа. Особенное внимание уделено определению социально-экономических
\nпричин и последствий международной миграции рабочей силы из Украины. Проанализированы направления украинской трудовой миграции, с учетом
\nвозрастных групп и секторов занятости отечественных трудовых мигрантов.
\nПредложены основные подходы относительно совершенствования
\nгосударственной миграционной политики на основе регуляции
\nтрудомиграционных процессов в Украине, замедления динамики миграции
\nнаселения, содержания численности и структуры населения, на уровне,
\nобеспечивающем поддержку хозяйственной освоенности территорий,
\nусовершенствования национального международного законодательства,
\nприостановки миграционных расходов, создания условий, для обратной
\nмиграции когорты украинских граждан, которые работают за рубежом и т. п.

The relevance of the research topic is determined by the importance of the problem and the need to study migration issues in the public administration practice. The article aims to study migration processes and state migration policies in the Russian Federation during the period from the end of the 20th to the beginning of the 21st centuries. The institutional approach is used as the main approach in this research. The study identifies socio-political, socio-economic, and legal factors which influence the effectiveness of migration policies: administrative, legislative, executive, target-oriented, regional, and consumer. The article presents qualitative changes in the internal and external migration flows in modern Russia, the Volga region, and shows the need to create a new migration policy: migration flows go from the north and the east to the central and south-western parts of the country, forced migration has been replaced by labor migration of the indigenous population from the countries of the near and far abroad. The article also examines the trends in the development of migration legislation, shows the influence of the political situation in the country on the changes in legislation regulating migration processes, and elaborates proposals and recommendations for their optimization. It defines the stages and the main directions of the new migration policy in modern Russia, describes the effect that reforming of the bodies of state power has on the effectiveness of migration policy at the federal and regional levels, and suggests measures for improving migration policies. The materials of the article may be useful in making management decisions and taking specific organizational measures in order to improve the management of migration processes, as well as in the development of training courses in political science studies:

The Costs and Benefits of Migration to Sending States: the More You Look, the Worse It Gets

The article examines the problems of emergence and implementation of illegal labor relations between national economic entities an d international mi grants. Migration processes carry potential and real threats to national and economic security. Therefore, the state needs to assess the risks of all illegal manifestations of migration and take a number of reactive and proactive measures aimed at minimizing t hem. The paper studies illegal labor activities of migrants, assesses the number of illegal labor migrants aimed at minimizing the risks from their labor activities. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological approaches to assess the risks of the state from illegal labor activities of migrants (based on their quantitative determination ) as a mechanism for countering illegal migration processes in the system of Russia’s economic security. The study is based on the works of Russian and foreign researchers in the field of risk-management, economic security, illegal migration and illegal migrants’ labor activities. The information base of the study are the statistical and analytical materials of the services of international and national statistics. The article emphasizes the need to systematically assess state risks by identifying illegal labor relations of migrants. The practical significance and scientific novelty of the study is determined by the possibility of implementing methodological recommendations f or assessing the number of illegal labor migrants in the strategy an d program for ensuring the economic security of the country throuh implementing relevant mechanisms to counteract illegal migration processes.

It is very important to study the demographic and migration processes in the country when forming the labor potential of rural areas. Using these indicators affecting the labor potential, we calculated the parameters of linear trend models, checking their adequacy of the constructed models, calculated the determination coefficients, and built confidential intervals for the forecasts. In order to present a quantitative model expressing the general tendency of the time series change over time, we used the analytical alignment of the time series. In this case, the actual levels were replaced by levels calculated on the basis of certain data. As a result, we got the result of a change in time of the studied indicators in a positive direction. Obtained results: outflow of external and internal migration is the reason for the decline of labor potential in the country, but in general does not affect the efficiency of labor potential of the village; indicators of the population in general, i.e., the population of cities and villages, internal and external migration with natural population growth are quite close to one, what means that their forecast changes are insignificant and do not undergo significant changes in the future. Finally, with a 95% probability, we can expect that in 2020 -2021, the indicators under consideration will not take values less than the lower limits of confidence forecast intervals and not greater than their upper limits. Obtain results are very important for development of a strategy for the effective use of labor potential.

Introduction. The article substantiates and proves the objective necessity of forming a system of vectors for assessing economic security, taking into account the transformational challenges of our time; certain trends in economic security and their key markers, which reflect modern transformation processes, namely: economic, technological, educational trends, socio-political, demographic and environmental. The proposed trends in economic security correspond to modern economic realities and develop the provisions of the concept of national economic security, taking into account new external economic and internal economic and socio-political conditions, challenges and threats to the functioning of the national economy. Goal. The goal of the article is to prepare trends in the approach to the formation of economic security of the state and their key signs that reflect modern transformation processes, namely: economic, technological, trend areas of education, socio-political, demographic and environmental. Results. The article states that during the last decade is actively developing and applies to the application of a risk-oriented approach to the formation of a system of economic security in one country. Within the risk-oriented approach, risks and their potential consequences are constructed by the system of combating danger precisely and the basis of such an approach. The peculiarity of the risk-oriented approach is that it takes into account not only the likely threats, but also the ability of the country to counteract such threats, identifying its potential vulnerability. Relationships between national security and economics increased as globalization and economic integration increased in recent decades. For open economies of the world, these interconnections are manifested as opportunities and possible threats to their national security. It is the definition of "risks vectors" that allows the channels of interactions between economic factors and national security. Relationships between national security and economics increased as globalization and economic integration increased in recent decades. For open economies of the world, these interconnections are manifested as opportunities and possible threats to their national security. It is the definition of "risks vectors" that allows the channels of interactions between economic factors and national security.

One of the reasons behind declining budget revenues can be external migration. This article aims to describe the methodology for estimation of tax losses and revenues from international labor migration for specific types of taxes. Changes in personal income tax revenues are estimated by using the data on the number of labor emigrants (immigrants) for specific occupations, nominal gross monthly wage of employees in this occupation in Russia, standard child tax deductions and the corresponding personal income tax rate for residents (non-residents). Changes in VAT and excise tax revenues caused by the current trends in labor migration are estimated in accordance with the structure of household consumption. The amount of tax revenues (and losses) is calculated as the product of the sum of VAT and excise tax payments made by one member of a household per year when buying goods, works and services on the territory of Russia, and the number of emigrants (or immigrants). The research uses the data provided by Rosstat, Federal Tax Service of Russia and the Analytical Centre under the Government of the Russian Federation for 2012–2017. The conclusion is made that international migration has a negative impact on the tax revenues of the country’s consolidated state budget. Although, throughout the whole of the given period, the balance of additional revenues from VAT, excise taxes and the personal income tax (PIT) on earned income and budget losses from these taxes remained positive, in absolute terms, this balance decreased significantly. Trends in international labor migration affected the balance of tax losses and revenues. Therefore, the government’s attempts to target international labor migration by reforming the tax legislation seem quite reasonable: the upcoming tax reforms will include the introduction of the concept ‘centre of vital interests’ as the second criterion of residence and equalization of the PIT rate for tax residents and non-residents. The proposed methodology can thus prove to be an effective tool for the Federal Tax Service of Russia to estimate the resulting changes in tax revenues as well as other changes related to labor migration processes.

This paper examines the theoretical foundations of international labor migration research, the impact of which determines the dynamics of the scale, direction, and intensity of migration. Existing theoretical provisions of international migration theory are analyzed in the context of the evolution of scholars' views on this phenomenon. The need to change migration policies in accordance with the trends of a globalized world and in response to the challenges of transforming European integration necessitates the study of the theoretical and methodological foundations of the migration process and the provisions of existing international migration theories. The evolution of international labor migration and the particularities of the each stage of its development will be examined. The factors that have created the need to study international labor migration are identified. The causes and consequences of international labor migration are determined by taking into account the uneven economic development of countries. The benefits of international labor migration for host and donor countries are explored, taking into account that current trends in the global labor market indicate that the process of labor migration covers most countries of the world. It is grounded that in the context of globalization, international migration has become one of the major socioeconomic phenomena, resulting in the identification of key trends in international labor migration that continue to shape the world economy. One of the positive consequences of labor migration is the promotion of economic development, support of social institutions and provision of the labor market with necessary resources. In this context, the peculiarities of migration policy in different countries are studied. Key approaches to preventing migration crises are proposed in order to avoid or minimize the social, economic, and political problems caused by large flows of migrants. Key strategies and approaches to mitigate migration flows have been identified in order to create conditions that reduce external and internal pressures on the migrant system. It is determined that international labor migration will not only identify the main disruptive forces and patterns of migration flows, but will also allow the development of effective strategies and policies to manage these processes at the national and international levels.

In Africa the historical evolution and stages of political development are crucial to an understanding of migration in general the distinction and linkages between internal and international migration their causes and policy issues. Of particular relevance in the African context are the effects of the demarcation of national boundaries the emergence since the early 1960s of independent nation states and especially the creation of regulations governing immigration. These have introduced a subtle distinction between internal and international migration both of which once involved free movement across wide areas of Africa and in the case of international migration between legal and illegal immigrants. This discussion analyzes these linkages against the backdrop of the causes of population movements and the policy responses to them. Conceptually international and internal migration are complementary and can supplement each other. Both derive from a complex of interrelated social and economic factors but are primarily related to the migrants search for greater well-being. From a policy perspective development normally has the effect of initially stimulating both internal and international migration in the short run. In the long run 1 viable policy instrument to restrain or retain a large number of (potential) emigrants from poor to rich countries or to attract them back is sustained development in the labor-exporting countries. In international migration political factors often can be more important than economic factors. A working typology of migration is outlined and shows that African migrants internal and international retain a prototype of the sociocultural structure of the community and regard their place of current (temporary) abode as an extension of the home community. Immigrants including refugees in Africa compete for the limited wage employment in both urban and rural sectors. Some of them fill the positions vacated by the nationals who have themselves emigrated abroad. Also internal migrants from rural areas compete for such positions in the towns from which nationals previously emigrated abroad in search of superior economic and other opportunities. A series of economic and political factors influence the opportunity structure in a country and indirectly the tempo and direction of internal and international migration. When the economy of a country is revitalized and employment opportunities improve considerably nations who had earlier emigrated to other countries could be attracted back home.