Middle East Geopolitics and China-India Strategic Interaction in the New Era

Abstract

In the past, the nature of global geopolitical interactions among states has seen Europe and the United States emerge as dominant players in Middle East regional politics. This assertion is based on the overstretched geostrategic interests of Europe and the United States (US) tied up with controlling strategic goods, such as crude oil and gas, as well as maintaining freedom of navigation. These three variables—oil, gas and water routes—were the most critical components that attracted global powers to engage with the Middle East. Recent developments, however, suggest that two rising Asian powers, China and India, are becoming increasingly involved in Middle East regional affairs. Both countries have recognised the critical role of the region in their future economic growth and development and have embedded the region into their national strategic plan. However, the region faces issues—such as terrorism, internal strife, particularly in Syria, maritime security, hunger and poverty, especially in Yemen, the recent US-Iran conflict and the COVID-19 global pandemic—that may influence the operationalisation and outcome of the future strategic plan of China and India. These current challenges thus require the Asian powers to reassess each other’s strategy. This paper analyses how China and India adapt their strategic interests in accordance to the compounding realities in the Middle East. In particular, it seeks to answer two relevant questions: To what extent can China and India engage the region in the coming years? Given their national interests and priorities vis-à-vis the Middle East, can we expect more cooperation than competition between these two Asian powers? Central to this is a thesis that cooperation among these two powers is more promising and effective, at least in those mentioned issues, despite their divergent national interests and historical rivalries.