Microbial risk assessment in heterogeneous aquifers: 2. Infection risk sensitivity

Abstract

The entire chain of events of human disease transmitted through contaminated water, from pathogen introduction into the source (E. coli, rotavirus, and Hepatitis A), pathogen migration through the aquifer pathway, to ingestion via a supply well, and finally, the potential infection in the human host, is investigated. The health risk calculations are based on a relevant hazardous event with safe setback distances estimated by considering the infection risk from peak exposure in compliance with an acceptable level defined by a regulatory agency. A site‐specific hypothetical scenario is illustrated for an aquifer with similar characteristics as the Cape Cod site, Massachusetts (United States). Relatively large variation of safe distances for the three index pathogens is found; individually, none of the index pathogens could predict the safe distance under the wide range of conditions investigated. It is shown that colloid filtration theory (CFT) with spatially variable attachment‐detachment rates yields significantly different results from the effective CFT model (i.e., assuming spatially constant parameters).