Međusobni uticaj potraživanja bankarskog sektora i međunarodne investicione pozicije Republike Srbije

This note presents a short description of BPM6-based balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It works through examples using data for the United States and Mexico while providing guidance for understanding the data of just about any country. Excerpt UVA-GEM-0154 Rev. Jan. 7, 2021 A User's Guide to BPM6-Based BOP and IIP Accounts This note presents a short description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for the United States and Mexico, but given that there are worldwide standards for countries that report BOP and IIP, it provides guidance for understanding the data of just about any country. The BOP accounts record international transactions (flows within a period of time), whereas the IIP records financial positions (stocks accumulated over time, reported as end-of-period values). In theory, there should be a straightforward link between the two. The BOP concerns the current account (trade in goods and services, plus remittance flows and income streams from international positions) and the transactions that finance it. The financing transactions the so-called capital flows result in cross-border positions in equities, debt, and other investment vehicles, and those positions are what make up the IIP. The position (or IIP) from year to year should evolve according to flows recorded in the BOP plus valuation changes (due to price and exchange rate movements). Individual countries publish their own BOP and IIP data, but the easiest place to find the data is in various International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases available at . The IMF not only brings together BOP and IIP data for more than 100 countries, but it also ensures consistency in the presentation of the data and creates global standards for BOP and IIP reporting. IMF guidelines change infrequently; when they do, countries try (to various degrees) to restructure data collection systems so that data can be produced according to the current set of global guidelines. This note is based on the current set of guidelines, which were codified in the sixth edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6), which was released in November 2013. . . .

The aim of this paper is to try to evaluate the impact of population ageing on Poland’s international investment position in the next five decades. To that end, a literature review was carried out along with a comparative analysis of measures of population ageing in Poland and other countries using logical deduction. The results of the study show that the expected intensive progress of population ageing in the 2020–2065 period will contribute to an increased demand for foreign capital, an increasingly negative international net investment position as well as unfavourable changes in the structure of foreign liabilities. The influx of foreign capital caused by population ageing might not translate into the expected maintenance of / increase in the rate of economic growth, while the substantial negative net international investment position may become a barrier to development in subsequent periods.

Purpose. To classify the models of assets and liabilities of the Visegrad Group and compare them with similar indicators of Ukraines international investment position. Methodology. The separation of models is carried out by three criteria: the formation of the structure, the degree of risk and the activity of the state. The asset model of Ukraines international investment position is defined as dynamic, with low risk and moderate government intervention. The liability model is also dynamic, but with high risk and increased government activity. Ukrainian economic models are not similar to any of the studied European models and are irrational by most criteria. Finding. Based on the comparison of the models of assets and liabilities formed in Ukraine with similar indicators of the Visegrad Group countries, a number of hypotheses about the strategy of improving the international investment position of Ukraine have been expressed. The basis for solving these problems should be activities aimed primarily at solving the internal problems of Ukraine, which can improve the mechanisms of direct and portfolio investment. Originality. An original methodology for classifying the models of assets and liabilities of the countrys international investment position has been developed. Its approbation by the example of Visegrad countries and Ukraine allowed finding the strengths and threats of different models and predict future scenarios of changes in the international investment position. Practical value. The developed methods for assessing the models of international investment position of the country can be used in other studies, which will allow developing countries to choose a certain international model to develop their own strategy for managing international financial flows.

This article is designed to explore the causes of trade deficits, the effects of trade deficits, policy options facing national governments in dealing with trade imbalances, and a comment on U.S. tariffs. Firstly, however, let us briefly consider what is referred to as the of trade, which may be defined as the difference between the monetary value of a country’s exports of goods (X) and the monetary value of its imports of goods (M). The difference can ordinarily be said to be favorable (meaning that X – M > 0) or unfavorable (implying that X – M < 0). If a country’s trade with another country yields a favorable outcome (that is, X – M > 0), the trade culminates into what is referred to as a trade surplus for the country. If, on the other hand, the country’s involvement in trade yields an unfavorable outcome (that is, X – M < 0), the trade yields what is referred to as a trade deficit for the country. Therefore, a “trade deficit” essentially represents a greater outflow of a country’s currency reserves to any specific trading partner in exchange for goods from the trading partner relative to the inflow of currency reserves from the trading partner in exchange for goods from the trading partner, assuming that the country’s consumers and business entities have the wherewithal to pay for imports from the trading partner’s economic units. It is important to note here that the excess of a country’s outflow of its currency reserves over the inflow of currency reserves is essentially wiped out by earnings realized by local retailers of a portion of goods imported into the country. It is perhaps also important to make a distinction between any given country’s balance of trade (defined above) and its balance of international indebtedness, which portrays the difference between assets owned by a country’s nationals in foreign countries and those owned by foreigners in the country, and which is also referred to alternately as a country’s international investment position. A country can use data pertaining to its “international investment position” to project the inflow of income through investments made within its borders by foreign investors, and the flow of payments (in the form of dividends and/or interest) to be repatriated to foreign investors’ home countries (see Salvatore, 1990:438-439). The difference between income inflows and disbursements can, therefore, enable a country to determine whether it is a net “debtor nation” or a net “creditor nation” with respect to the concept of the “international investment position.” Private investments made in foreign countries by a country’s local investors can improve the country’s “international investment position” if they are greater than investments made by foreign private investors in the country. For countries which have an abundance of capital for investment in their domestic economies and are no longer in need of rapid economic growth (such as G-7 nations), it is perhaps desirable to seek to become net “creditor nations” by screening investments by foreign nationals. As Salvatore (1990:440) has advised, this can, among other things, forestall the potential for a financial crisis and high interest rates which can be caused by a sudden withdrawal of investments, for whatever reason, and the worsening of current account balances due to rising income payments to foreigners for their investments. Developing countries, however, do not have the luxury of screening foreign investors, mainly because they are, by and large, in dire need of foreign direct investments to prop up their fragile and poverty-gripped national economies.

The article reveals a relationship between the balance of payments of the international investment position regarding changes in the amount of cash foreign currency and the volume of assets due to changes in the residency of the owner of cash foreign currency (resident/non-resident). The structural and dynamic analysis of the international investment position revealed the place of the Russian financial system in the global capital market as an investment partner, and its investment status in the global financial system. The relationship between the balance of payments and the international investment position regarding changes in the amount of cash foreign currency and the volume of assets is indicated. As a result of assessing the structure and dynamics of the international investment position using data from the International Monetary Fund and the Central Bank of Russia, a stable dynamics of the net international investment position, the active use of debt instruments and debt securities, and reverse investment for direct and portfolio investments were revealed. The main impact on the dynamics of Russia's international investment position is made by the government, acting as an intermediary between non-residents, Russian enterprises and commercial banks. The Ministry of Finance of Russia, issuing high-yield debt securities, encourages non-residents and commercial banks to carry out investment lending through the state "leverage", which increases the loan price. The real sector of the Russian economy is becoming dependent on the policies of the Government of Russia.

Balance of payments (BOP) accounting conventions, never straightforward, have been complicated recently by the introduction of new standards. This note presents a short description of BOP and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for the United States, Brazil, and South Africa, but given that there are worldwide standards for countries that report BOP and IIP, it should provide guidance for understanding the data of just about any country. It is meant to be a resource that students can refer to time and time again as they gain a deeper understanding of BOP data. Excerpt UVA-GEM-0135 Rev. Mar. 6, 2017 A User's Guide to the BOP and IIP: The Transition from BPM5 to BPM6 This note presents a short description of balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) data. It refers to data for the United States, Brazil, and South Africa, but given that there are worldwide standards for countries that report BOP and IIP, it should provide guidance for understanding the data of just about any country. Individual countries publish their own BOP and IIP data, but the easiest place to find the data is in various International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases available at . The IMF not only brings together BOP and IIP data for more than 100 countries, it also ensures consistency in the presentation of the data. . . .

1. The balance of payments accounts and related data on the international investment position (stocks of external financial assets and liabilities) are closely linked to the overall System of National Accounts. This linkage is reinforced by the fact that, in most countries, data on the balance of payments and international investment position are compiled first, and subsequently incorporated in relevant external account components of the rest of the world account of the System. There is virtually complete concordance between the SNA and the Balance of Payments Manual (the Manual) with respect to such issues as the delineation of resident units (either producers or consumers), valuation of transactions and of the stock of external assets and liabilities, time of recording of transactions, conversion procedures, coverage of international transactions in goods and services, income flows, current transfers, capital transfers, foreign financial assets and liabilities, and coverage of the international investment position. There are, however, differences in classification or level of detail in the rest of the world account and the Manual. These reflect, inter alia, differences in analytical requirements and the need, in the SNA, to adopt a uniform classification scheme for all sectors of the economy. The bulk of the discussion in this annex will focus on the relationship between aggregates and details contained in the rest of the world account and corresponding items in the Manual.

We revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we make use of a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country's international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions; furthermore, long-run exchange rate equilibria may have little relation to purchasing power parity outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality.

Celem opracowania jest próba ocenienia zmian, jeśli chodzi o międzynarodową pozycję inwestycyjną netto45w krajach Unii Europejskiej w latach 2006–2014 w kontekście przestrzegania zaleceń w ramach ogłoszonej procedury zakłóceń makroekonomicznych. W niniejszej pracy dokonano przeglądu najważniejszych koncepcji teoretycznych, będących punktem wyjścia dalszych rozważań. W tym celu przeanalizowano literaturę przedmiotu oraz dane statystyczne dotyczące międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej krajów w latach 2006–2014. Na tej podstawie spróbowano ocenić współczesne tendencje dotyczące salda netto MPI w UE. W krajach UE występują znaczące różnice w przepływach kapitału mierzonego międzynarodową pozycją netto. Wybuch kryzysu w 2008 r. wywołał zmiany w tendencji w kształtowaniu się struktury kapitału w MPI. W okresie 2006–2014 następuje wzrost absolutnych wartości aktywów oraz pasywów MPI. W większości krajów UE pogłębia się ujemne saldo przepływów finansowych międzynarodowej pozycji inwestycyjnej względem PKB badanych krajów.

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country's international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country's net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country's effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks.

Investment income covers income derived from a resident entity's ownership of foreign financial assets. This paper explores the impact of international investment positions on the investment income captured in balance of payments data. At First, international investment position and balance of payments are described including definition and relationships. And then, we analyze the balance of investment income and the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities of China. Finally, this paper proposes policy suggestion on the direct investment income in China, the structure of net international investment position and investment income account will be improved.

The article deals with the economic and statistical analysis of trends in the development of statistical data on the balance of payments and the international investment position of Russia over the past 15 years, indicating the sustainable development of the foreign economic sector of the Russian economy.The article begins with addressing the scope and subject matter of the study of the balance of payments and the international investment position of the country. Then the author examines external economic activities for each of the three periods depicting the influence of the crisis phenomena in the global economy in 1998, 2008 and 2014. Within these periods the author considers the interaction of the world and Russian economies, serious reduction of the external sector of the Russian economy in these periods of crisis and generally the deterioration of the results of foreign economic activity of the country. Comparing the balance of payments and international investment position before and after crisis periods it is possible to note the good state government management of the external sector of the Russian economy, which helped to restore the balance of payments of the country and to increase its net international investment position after the crisis.On a final note, it is concluded that the most effective and efficient for external regulation in a crisis is the so called profitable method when the expense of centralized redistribution of income and cash management of financial flows, is formed in the margin in the markets, determines the scale and direction of cash flows, are governed by incorporated in the cost of exported products yield. The market method with the help of tariff pricing and regulation does not allow to fully control and predict the vector of cash flows in a crisis, redistribute profitability between sectors of the economy and even “save” borrowers in crisis situation.

The article provides a detailed analysis of the state of Ukraine’s public and state-guaranteed debt and the effectiveness of its management in today's difficult conditions. The concept of “Public Debt” is considered in accordance with the current legislation of Ukraine and an explanation of its general structure is provided, namely the internal and external components of the debt. The interpretation of the concept of “Public Debt Management” is highlighted. The main reasons for the growth of public debt in Ukraine are summarized. The activities of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine regarding public and state-guaranteed debt are analyzed and the medium-term public debt management strategy developed by it for 2024–2026, which is being implemented in the context of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the territory of Ukraine, is considered. The structure and dynamics of Ukraine’s public debt over the past 5 years, namely 2020–2024, are studied and analyzed. As part of the analysis, both public and state-guaranteed debt, as well as indicators of external and internal debt separately, were analyzed. The shares of domestic and external debt in the total amount of Ukraine’s public debt were determined. The types of international financial assistance that have the greatest impact on Ukraine's external public debt were summarized. In addition, during the work, the growth rate of Ukraine’s public debt was analyzed, and at the same time, the growth rates of domestic and external public debt were analyzed. The public and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine was also characterized by currency as of the end of 2024. As one of the main indicators in the analysis of public debt, data on the comparison of the principal amount of public debt to the actual annual volume of GDP were provided. As part of the analysis, a number of problems were identified that the Ukrainian economy is currently facing due to the constant growth of public debt. The measures that the public debt management policy should implement to stabilize the economic situation in Ukraine for both domestic and external debt were summarized.

This paper analyses 43 countries from 1970 to 2010 to investigate the effect that public debt has on bank loans. The study is motivated by the need to understand the consequences of high public debt, a condition many countries are already experiencing or will experience in the next few years. Looking at the 40‐year period, we find that the ratio of government debt to GDP has a negative association with the subsequent growth of bank credit. Our results hold using different econometric methods and controlling for variables such as the lagged value of bank loans, the occurrence of banking crises, per capita GDP, the inflation rate, trade openness, international investment position, stock market capitalization and countries' legal origin.

China's international investment position is characterized by large net foreign assets, a dominance of low‐return foreign exchange reserves and costly foreign direct investment in foreign assets and foreign liabilities. In addition, China's foreign investment positions are facing potentially large exchange risks. These features reflect entrenched institutional and structural problems in China, including underdeveloped capital markets, biased resource allocation and a defective social security system. China's net creditor status might actually be an indication of weakness rather than strength. To improve its international investment position, China must speed up economic reforms and allow the market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation.