Međupopisne procene u Srbiji 2011-2022 - da li su neophodne?

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Censuses in Serbia often incorporate new methodological solutions, making it increasingly challenging to track population trends over time. Understanding methodological innovations in censuses and aligning census data with vital statistics are prerequisites for any scientific analysis and interpretation of population dynamics. Methodologically sound data are particularly important for population estimates, which are typically generated after a census (referred to as postcensal estimates). The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia primarily produces postcensal estimates, while intercensal estimates (estimates made between two censuses) are used internally and are not published or used to update previously released data. This paper aims to highlight specific methodological discrepancies in the data used to calculate key demographic indicators and to open a discussion on the necessity of producing intercensal estimates. The findings reveal the extent to which the population wasnerated after a census (referred to as postcensal estimates). The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia primarily produces postcensal estimates, while intercensal estimates (estimates made between two censuses) are used internally and are not published or used to update previously released data. This paper aims to highlight specific methodological discrepancies in the data used to calculate key demographic indicators and to open a discussion on the necessity of producing intercensal estimates. The findings reveal the extent to which the population was overestimated in official figures due to the omission of international migration data during the preparation of these estimates. This omission has impacted the accuracy of demographic and various socio-economic indicators that rely on population data for calculation. Intercensal estimates not only allow for the correction of some of these indicators but also provide a foundation for estimating the volume of emigration from Serbia during the intercensus period.