Metro Expansion and Nonmetro Change in the South

Abstract

Demographic trends over the past several decades reflect a relentless geographic expansion of U.S. metropolitan (metro) areas, a steady rise in the number of long-distance commuters, and rapid population growth in adjacent, nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) counties. As suburbs expand, nearby nonmetro counties enter a period of change marked by increasing economic integration with metro economies, steady losses of rural and small-town landscapes and livelihoods, and eventual reclassification from nonmetro to metro status. Such transitions intensified during the 1990s as migration into nonmetro areas rebounded. Given the complexity of land-use patterns and socioeconomic conditions emerging along the metro-nonmetro boundary, it’s important to understand the transition process and its effect on communities and people. In addition, such extensive transitions call into question the use of nonmetro counties to identify rural and small town settlement areas. Researchers and policy makers must apply rural and urban concepts cautiously or even consider new thinking altogether. In this paper I examine what happens to nonmetro counties and their mostly rural and small-town settlement patterns as they become metro. Previous research assumed no systematic process by which nonmetro counties became integrated into metro areas, and no one has proposed or measured any type of transitional sequence. I attempt to do this by exploring the following questions concerning metro expansion and nonmetro change in the South: 1. Over time, is it possible to describe a consistent developmental pattern followed by a significant portion of nonmetro counties in the process of becoming metro? In particular, would this sequence commonly include a period of increasing commuting from the rural and small town periphery prior to suburban in-migration and the land-use changes associated with sprawl? 2. At any given point in time, is it possible to distinguish counties at different stages in this developmental sequence? In particular, is it possible to