“Methy Imbiß” by M.E.S.H.: Concealed Politics

Актуальність проведення цього дослідження пов’язана з активними міграційними процесами, вимушеним характером міграцій населення на сході України, під яким у широкому розумінні ми розглядаємо територію Донецької, Луганської та Харківської областей. Мета дослідження – пошук і встановлення передумов, які впливають на формування загальної міграційної ситуації у Східній Україні загалом і вимушені міграції зокрема. Внаслідок воєнного конфлікту на Донбасі, окупації частини території Донецької та Луганської областей та посилення воєнно-політичної нестабільності на сході України виникли вимушені внутрішні переміщення населення та з’явилась категорія внутрішньо переміщених осіб (ВПО). Однак ми розуміємо, що воєнний конфлікт викликаний сукупністю передумов, які стали причиною його активізації у період трансформацій та, як наслідок, викликали вимушені міграції. Серед передумов, які викликали воєнний конфлікт та безпосередньо вплинули або впливають зараз на вимушене внутрішнє переміщення населення на сході України, виділяємо такі: заселенські процеси, безпекові, політичні, економічні, соціально-демографічні, етнолінгвістичні, культурні та ментальні передумови. Сукупність цих передумов призвела до формування на Донбасі особливого регіонального соціуму, який сформувався в процесі його тривалого історико-культурного та соціально-економічного розвитку. Тісні історичні та торговельно-економічні зв’язки з Російською Федерацією, наявність спільного кордону, масові добровільні та вимушені міграції російського населення за часів Радянського Союзу в регіоні призвели до домінування на Донбасі російськомовного населення, яке насторожено ставилося до української влади. Під час революційних змін в Україні всі ці особливості та чинники стали джерелом глибокого конфлікту, який за підтримки місцевих політичних еліт, громадських організацій та масової інформаційної атаки перейшов у затяжний воєнний конфлікт і став причиною масового вимушеного внутрішнього переміщення населення.

The article analyzes characteristics and deviations from the approach to rural development via local initiative groups that has been fully accepted as a method in most part of the developed societies. It has been found, that in Ukraine such groups function better if they are composed of officials, responsible management and heads of local agencies. However, during the antiterrorist operation in 2014; in order to relocate, adapt and stabilize communities in areas of conflict in Ukraine, mixed action groups were often formed that contained a share of IDPs (internally displaced persons) and civil society activists. Such groups have shown themselves fairly well during the 2014–2016 biennium, and their potential was found to be suitable for further economic development of rural areas in Eastern Ukraine, including possible early recovery economic projects in the approximation to the conflict zone, where only voluntary associations are seen as able to produce small, but real economic effects. Features of the structure, performance, motivation of these groups and associations are highlighted in the article further below. The relevance of incentives for small and medium businesses as a way of creating new jobs in these villages and municipalities is separately discussed.

The need to implement a project to provide scientific support for financial planning for the development of territorial communities in eastern Ukraine is due to the presence of major risks arising from the military conflict and the COVID pandemic. The implementation of the project on decentralization of fiscal processes in territorial communities in the East of Ukraine will help communities to orientate in financial planning, as well as will benefit other stakeholders. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the project on the need and possibility of scientific support for the decentralization of fiscal processes in territorial communities in eastern Ukraine. The object of research - territorial communities in eastern Ukraine. Methods used in the study: comparative and expert analysis, detailing and generalization. The hypothesis of the study was the assumption that the project to decentralize fiscal processes in local communities in eastern Ukraine should be implemented by experts - economists and lawyers in the number of six people who will perform the proposed list of scientific and analytical work within - six months. Presentation of the main material: in order to intensify the process of decentralization of fiscal processes in territorial communities in eastern Ukraine, it is appropriate to implement a project involving the formation of a group of experts (economists and lawyers), logical and related research to be carried out by specific experts. which should get the appropriate results. The proposals developed by experts will create sustainable financial mechanisms that will help reduce the risk of disasters at the community level. The originality and practical significance of the study lies in the proposal to involve in the project relevant specialists who must perform the established list of scientific and analytical work and obtain concrete results. Conclusions and prospects for further research. Substantiation of the project on the need and possibility of scientific support for decentralization of fiscal processes in local communities in eastern Ukraine led to the conclusion that the project will help local communities in eastern Ukraine to understand the features of financial planning, as well as benefit other stakeholders. financial opportunities and sources of development of territorial communities in order to strengthen their economic potential. The proposals developed by experts will create sustainable financial mechanisms that will help reduce the risk of disasters at the community level. Further research should be aimed at implementing the proposed proposals and evaluating their effectiveness.

This chapter investigates the legal problems relating to the status of children affected by the armed conflict in Eastern Ukraine, such as their involvement in hostilities, losing parents, being deprived of schooling, trafficking and other grave violations of children’s rights in the combat zone and territory not controlled by the Ukrainian Government. The author analyses legislative measures that have been implemented in Ukraine in relation to the provisions of international humanitarian and human rights law relating to children affected by armed conflict, as well as reveals certain gaps in national juvenile and criminal legislation. The author’s propositions are as follows: full implementation of the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Involvement of Children in Armed Conflict and ratification of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, fundamental revision of the section of the Criminal Code of Ukraine dedicated to crimes against the peace and security of mankind, and appropriate amendments to juvenile legislation.

У стaттi aнaлiзуються oсoбливoстi сучaсних вiйськoвo-пoлiтичних кoнфлiктiв (гiбpиднi, aсимeтpичнi тощо вiйни). Poзглядaються мoжливi сцeнapiї виpiшeння збpoйнoгo пpoтистoяння нa Схoдi Укpaїни. Aкцeнтується увaгa нa вaжливoстi викopистaння диплoмaтичних зaсoбiв шляхoм aктивнoгo зaлучeння свiтoвoї гpoмaдськoстi тa пoсилeння eкoнoмiчних сaнкцiй пpoти Poсiйськoї Фeдepaцiї.

Priorities for ensuring environmental security in the zone of military conflict in Eastern Ukraine as components of environmental protection in the context of the reintegration of temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions have been identified. It is noted that about 3.6 million people in the regions along the demarcation line face problems with access to clean water. It is emphasized that as a result of hostilities there was a large-scale destruction and damage to critical infrastructure. This has led to an imbalance in the temporarily occupied territory, as well as a dangerous decline in the level of environmental protection in the region, which is home to about 5 million people. It is emphasized that uncontrolled flooding of many mines leads to an increase in the number and scale of manifestation of dangerous environmental factors for the life of the population and increasing socio-economic tensions in the area up to 15 thousand km2. At the same time, mine waters rise to the surface and begin to flow into small rivers, flooding cities and entering the Seversky Donets River, which is used for water supply to about 70 % of the population of Donetsk region. It is emphasized that increasing the level of environmental safety, restoring the environment of Donbas in the context of forming an environmental protection program is a necessary prerequisite for its reintegration. The current threats to the security of water supply in eastern Ukraine, the intensification of which is associated with the deterioration of the environmental situation in the region, are analyzed. It is emphasized that in the conditions of flooding of mines and pollution of reservoirs in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions there is a pollution of water sources and deterioration of quality of drinking water. Thus, pollution of reservoirs in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions poses an urgent threat to 300 thousand inhabitants of the region. In order to ensure environmental security in Eastern Ukraine, recommendations are proposed on a set of measures to ensure environmental protection in Eastern Ukraine as a necessary prerequisite for the reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories.

The distribution of military conflicts duration, the calculation of their average and median duration and the forecast of conflicts in future have been conducted based on the statistical analysis of most military conflicts in the XX–XXI centuries (up to the end of 2016). The unpredictability of military conflicts duration and useless of their accurate forecast have been grounded. The portion of periods when military conflicts occurred in the USSR and Russia during ХХ–ХХI centuries has been determined. The dynamics of military expenditure trends and its share in the GDP of the USA and Russia have been analyzed. The tendency to the GDP slowdown associated with the participation in military conflicts has been observed. The trend to increase military expenditures has also been revealed. The forecast of absolute values, GDP growth trends and military expenditures of Russia and the USA has been made using autoregression and trend models. The conception to create a special military fund to accumulate recourses to insure a country from different risks in current and future military campaigns has been suggested. The structure of expenditures on military campaigns has been analyzed. The examples of high costs of a country participation in military conflicts and full-scale wars in the case study of the USA have been given. The influence of military expenditures on an economic growth in a country has been studied based on the criticism of the “broken windows” effect. The positive effect to increase military expenditures on the social-economic development of a country to strengthen the security and to transfer military developments to a civil sector has been observed. The necessity to manage GDP dynamics due to military expenditures increase has been grounded. The future researches will concern the size of a special military fund and the speed of its increase. Keywords military conflict, expenditures, duration, a model, autoregression, resources, forecast, economic growth, GDP, fund, the expected duration, the broken windows theory.

Summary. The article examines the main reasons and preconditions for the occupation of certain regions in eastern Ukraine. The influence and role of Russia in this military conflict are analyzed, and for the first time an empirical (applied) analysis of the democratization index in the temporarily occupied territories is carried out. Russia’s aggressive policy in eastern Ukraine is part of a “hybrid” war against Ukraine that began in early 2014 with the occupation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. With the support of Russia, the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk” people’s republics were created in eastern Ukraine. In essence, these are occupation military administrations that number more than 30,000 people, including regular troops and instructors of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. These are well-armed military formations, the number and combat capabilities of which are not inferior to the armies of individual European countries. In the temporarily occupied territories there is a total political and ideological “Russification”, the purpose of which is the alienation and further isolation of these territories from official Kyiv. It should be noted that the hostilities, which have been going on for the sixth year, pose serious economic, political, legal, and geopolitical problems on Ukraine’s path to consolidating the democratic regime and integrating with the European community. The change of political regime in 2013 in Ukraine opened up prospects for the consolidation of national identity and the restoration of the course of Euro-Atlantic integration, which was usually not accepted by official Moscow and personally by President Putin. It should be clearly understood that the war in Donbass, provoked by Russia, is the result of a systematic and long-term policy of Russia towards Ukraine as a country with a favorable geopolitical location and a kind of bridge between Europe and Russia. The article pays special attention to the theoretical and applied analysis of democratic development in Donbass. It should be noted that from 2020 “Freedom House” will start monitoring the territory and accordingly provide quantitative data on the democratization index with the appropriate analytical base and forecasts.

In order to determine the implementation of constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens affected by the military conflict in eastern Ukraine, bringing current legislation to world standards, the scientific article: explores the main sources of international humanitarian law governing legal relations in armed aggression; the current state of protection of constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens affected by the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine is considered. The methodological basis of the scientific article was general and special methods and techniques of scientific knowledge aimed at developing effective mechanisms to protect the rights of victims of armed conflict in eastern Ukraine. It is stated that there is no effective mechanism for applying the provisions of the relevant regulations on the protection of fundamental rights and freedoms of the population during an international armed conflict. To this end, regulatory proposals have been developed to protect such categories of the population as women, children, prisoners of war, the wounded and the sick. The main organizational measures at the national level include: preventing and combating all forms of discrimination, gender-based violence, human trafficking and slavery, providing quality assistance to victims; conducting a timely investigation and taking appropriate measures in respect of any cases of damage, confiscation and looting of property in the area of the Joint Forces Operation, the commission of other criminal offenses. It is indicated to ensure adequate state guarantees for the protection of fundamental human rights: to life and the existence of legal mechanisms for effective investigation of violations of this right; to freedom and personal integrity, to effectively investigate the crimes of enforced disappearance, to release hostages, to restore their rights and to ensure their rehabilitation; to an independent, fair trial within a reasonable time.

Older people and political instability

In July 2014, 298 civilians aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 were killed when their aircraft was shot down over an active war zone in eastern Ukraine. Since that time, a Joint Investigative Taskforce has worked to unearth the facts of the incident. A trial is underway in the Netherlands against four suspects accused of shooting down the passenger plane and murdering all on board, although its progress has been slowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This article evaluates the means chosen by the Joint Investigative Taskforce and Dutch prosecutors to attribute criminal responsibility through the lens of international criminal justice. We consider the unique circumstances of the case including the collection of evidence in a conflict zone, the choice of legal forum and charges, the trial in absentia of the accused, the recognition of victims’ families’ rights to justice and the potential implication of the Russian Federation in the prosecution. In July 2014, 298 civilians aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 were killed when their aircraft was shot down over an active war zone in eastern Ukraine. Since that time, a Joint Investigative Taskforce has worked to unearth the facts of the incident. A trial is underway in the Netherlands against four suspects accused of shooting down the passenger plane and murdering all on board, although its progress has been slowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This article evaluates the means chosen by the Joint Investigative Taskforce and Dutch prosecutors to attribute criminal responsibility through the lens of international criminal justice. We consider the unique circumstances of the case including the collection of evidence in a conflict zone, the choice of legal forum and charges, the trial in absentia of the accused, the recognition of victims’ families’ rights to justice and the potential implication of the Russian Federation in the prosecution.

Today the main content of security is the protection of people and society. The problem of social security in a broad sense, the security of the person, certain groups of the population, society as a whole becomes the main one. Children are a particularly vulnerable category of the population. They are the main subjects and objects of systemic discrimination, which is especially intensified in the context of armed conflicts. Armed conflicts have a negative impact on the family functioning in general, and especially on the provision of the basic needs of the child, his development and psychological state.According to the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), as of January 2019, more than 34 million children worldwide living in conditions of conflict or emergencies do not receive the necessary protection. Their largest number is in Yemen (6.6 million people), Syria (5.5 million people), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (4 million people). In the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine, about 500 thousand children need immediate protection and humanitarian assistance.The article further substantiates the need to fundamentally change the anthological paradigm in the study of security concepts (social, human): to move from monism in explaining the relation between the material and the spiritual, as components of the universe, to pluralism. It allows to represent any phenomenon as an organic unification and a dialectical combination of material and ideal, when under certain conditions there is a priority development of one of them, and to substantiate the necessity of forming a new concept of comprehensive "broad" security, in which the environment of the subject, will allow him to make and implement decisions according to his goals, aimed at progressive development.The author of the article also identifies and analyzes the risks for children, possible violations of children's rights during and after an armed conflict. Analysis of the provisions of the Geneva Conventions (1949) and the Additional Protocols thereto (1977), the Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989), the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Involvement of Children in Armed Conflict (2000), other international acts on the establishment of the protection of the rights of the child in armed conflicts for the purpose of their coherence between themselves and with the norms of international humanitarian law in general is carried out. Measures aimed at improving the mechanism for ensuring the right to child safety and strengthening the protection of children from involvement in armed conflicts are proposed.

A military conflict (especially its active phase) is a time of maximum exertion of all the powers of the state and society, a time that requires quick and correct decisions from state bodies. The quality of these decisions is largely determined by the estimation adequacy of the current situation. As the analysis shows, modern military conflicts start suddenly and develop rapidly. The official informing system turns out to be ineffective, what leads to numerous mistakes in decision-making. In addition, modern military conflicts are of a hybrid nature. The outcome of such military conflicts depends on many factors of a non-military nature, for example, the quality of governance, support from the population, international assistance. These factors are often formulated qualitatively (linguistically), and the conditions of the active phase of a military conflict do not give time to check the adequacy of quantitative data. Therefore, it is necessary that the method for estimating the outcome of the active phase takes into account the data uncertainty and ensures a generalization of the partial characteristics of the current situation. Based on the analysis of known approaches to the description and processing of uncertainty, the authors proposed using the methods of fuzzy integral calculus to describe partial characteristics and calculate a generalized characteristic, which is an estimation of the success of the outcome of an active phase. The authors have solved the following subproblems: identification of structure and parameters of standard for estimating; choice of the observation channel of the characteristics of the current situation; constructing the algorithm for estimations generalization. The authors demonstrated the work of the proposed algorithm by the example of estimating the results of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in July 2014.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) was deployed in 2014, following a request to the OSCE by Ukrainian government and the decision of Permanent Council. Since then, the OSCE remains the only organization that provides an international presence exactly in the conflict zone in the east of Ukraine. Unarmed civilian observers that represent OSCE participating states provide ongoing monitoring of the events and the security situation on the contact line and all over Ukraine. They monitor and control the implementation of the Minsk agreements, namely, observe the withdrawal of the heavy weapons from the demarcation line, monitor the facts of ceasefire violations, observe the humanitarian and security situation in the conflict zone. They also serve as a communication bridge between different parties of the conflict. By facilitating on-site dialogue, they are trying to reduce tensions and help to normalize the situation in the conflict zone. Information and communication activities are the core activities of the mission, defined by the objectives of its mandate. Communication and information exchange is carried out both by the direct leadership of the Mission, the Chief Monitor, the Deputy Chief Monitor and the observation teams on the ground near the contact line, and in ten regions all over Ukraine. The main target audience of SMM is OSCE’s 57 participating States, however in order to implement the mandate, Mission communicates with various target audiences from civil society representatives to the governmental officials and journalists. In its activities, Mission uses a broad communication toolkit that allows it to perform information interaction with various target audiences, which in turn, contributes significantly to the effective implementation of the objectives defined in its mandate. Key words: OSCE; OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM); communication; mediation; conflicts.

«FISSURE OF THE WORLD SYSTEM»: GLOBAL SHIFTS AND HYBRID CHALLENGES