Mesoscopic structure of the stock market and portfolio optimization

Abstract

AbstractThe idiosyncratic and systemic components of market structure have been shown to be responsible for the departure of the optimal mean-variance allocation from the heuristic ‘equally weighted’ portfolio. In this paper, we exploit clustering techniques derived from Random Matrix Theory to study a third, intermediate (mesoscopic) market structure that turns out to be the most stable over time and provides important practical insights from a portfolio management perspective. First, we illustrate the benefits, in terms of predicted and realized risk profiles, of constructing portfolios by filtering out both random and systemic co-movements from the correlation matrix. Second, we redefine the portfolio optimization problem in terms of stock clusters that emerge after filtering. Finally, we propose a new wealth allocation scheme that attaches equal importance to stocks belonging to the same community and show that it further increases the reliability of the constructed portfolios. Results are robust across different time spans, cross sectional dimensions and set of constraints defining the optimization problem.