Abstract

INTRODUCTIONRecently I was talking about our times with a professor of modem history at a German university. In the course of our conversation I asked him what he - a historian - thought about coming developments.He replied that it was not the task of the historian to foresee events. Historians were not prophets. They sought rather to record or to ascertain what happened as truthfully as possible.I responded that in my view the historian's task was a different one. To my mind historians, especially professors of modern history, must at least make the attempt, by way of analogies between past events and those of our times, even our days, to discern the probable direction in which events seem to be tending, and then to point to developments that may be expected and even, if necessary, to sound warnings.The historian did not agree with me. He repeated, once more, that historians are not prophets.Of course I do not demand prophesy of a historian, but I think that his work - especially if he is a modern historian - is not complete until he has tried to predict future developments from present events, as well as possible.Although I am no historian, I have lived through much, and helped to shape quite a lot of it, in agitated and even tempestuous times. Of course I am not a prophet either and I may well be wrong in what I say about the future. But I shall be content if I make the reader think about affairs at present and whither they may lead.A long life gives men a chance to acquire experience. Experience can be a guide to thought and action which nothing can replace, not even innate intellect. This is particularly true in the field of politics.My memories go back a long way. When I was a student in my first semester at the University of Freiburg in 1894, all things seemed to have their firm, appointed place on this earth. Nobody could have imagined the turmoil the next decades were to bring. At the turn of the century the German Reich was the strongest land power and Great Britain the greatest sea power in the world, and Europe was the centre of the world's political and economic power.The United States had no army worth mentioning, no considerable navy, and had not yet entered world politics.1914 brought the First World War. It brought the United States into world politics. The German Empire came to an end and was succeeded by the Weimar Republic. The year 1933 brought Hitler and National Socialism to power. He wantonly unleashed the Second World War. It finished with the complete destruction of Germany in 1945 and with a fateful weakening of Europe.This book begins with the events after Germany's collapse in 1945. It is to give my reminiscences of my experiences since 1945, without omissions, without colouring. At the same time, however, it is meant to put the reader in a position to think about the future. To present the material merely chronologically would not properly convey to the reader the connections between events which alone will allow him to understand what happened and what is happening. The material therefore had to be organized in a way that permitted these connections to be recognized. Hence important developments and issues - the questions of reunification, of those expelled from their homes, of the equalization of burdens, of reconstruction, and of economics - had to be left to the next volume. Another thing that has to be left until then is the appreciation of the great help given me by those who accompanied me on my way.

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