Media Representation of Extreme Event Attribution: A Case Study of the 2011–17 California Drought

Abstract

AbstractExtreme event attribution (EEA) is a relatively new branch of climate science combining weather observations and modeling to assess and quantify whether and to what extent anthropogenic climate change altered extreme weather events (such as heat waves, droughts, and floods). Such weather events are frequently depicted in the media, which enhances the potential of EEA coverage to serve as a tool to communicate on-the-ground climate impacts to the general public. However, few academic papers have systematically analyzed EEA’s media representation. This paper helps to fill this literature gap through a comprehensive analysis of media coverage of the 2011–17 California drought, with specific attention to the types of attribution and uncertainty represented. Results from an analysis of five U.S. media outlets between 2014 and 2015 indicate that the connection between the drought and climate change was covered widely in both local and national news. However, legitimate differences in the methods underpinning the attribution studies performed by different researchers often resulted in a frame of scientific uncertainty or disagreement in the media coverage. While this case study shows substantial media interest in attribution science, it also raises important challenges for scientists and others communicating the results of multiple attribution studies via the media.