Measuring the potential emission reductions from a shift towards public transport

The research presented in this paper examines the potential for a reduction in car use in the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) as a result of introducing a range of sustainable policy incentives. A package of mode-specific incentives devised to encourage a mode shift away from single occupancy vehicle (SOV) use to walking, cycling, public transport, carpooling and car-sharing were examined for their potential to reduce car mode share. The policies tested were represented in a four-stage transportation model to generate new mode choices and subsequently new mode shares. Changes in mode share were similarly analyzed in terms of tailpipe emissions savings from changes in SOV kilometers traveled and estimations of the potential monetary savings accrued from a reduction in emissions. Ultimately, an indication of possible reductions in private car use and the potential for a rise in sustainable mode choice and a reduction in car trips was ascertained in the GDA. Modeling was conducted in collaboration with the National Transport Authority (NTA) of Ireland to represent the policy changes by means of parameter modifications in the Mode Choice and Trip Assignment stages of the Eastern Regional Model. These changes were made to account for modifications made to infrastructure, frequency, time and cost parameters. A 2012 Base Year and forecasted 2035 scenario were considered in this study. Outputs from these modeled scenarios produced mode share estimates derived from new origin-destination trip demand and mode choice predictions. The results showed that the policy interventions tested incentivised more mode shifting behavior among sustainable modes rather than from private car trips to public transport and active mode trips. Moreover, it was estimated that active mode users were more elastic or sensitive to changes made in the pedestrian network than the cycling network, which is reflected in mode shifting from cycling to walking. A reduction in the mode share of private cars of up to 1.6% and an increase in walking of up to 5% were estimated across the modeled scenarios in the GDA, and a daily monetary saving of up to €14,125 could be achieved as a result of reductions in CO2, NOx, and PM2.5 private car emissions from the introduction of the policy incentives tested. Overall, this study assesses the behavioral impacts of introducing a range of policy incentives alone on private car use and produces evidence to support the effectiveness of a carrot and sticks approach versus an incentive only method.

Modelling the potential benefits of increased active travel

The National Transport Authority was established originally as a land-use and transport planning agency whose aim was to coordinate and integrate transport infrastructure and service delivery in the Greater Dublin Area and, subsequently, to manage public passenger transport licensing nationally. This paper looks at the corporate structure of the NTA and, comparing it to other transport systems, assesses its incorporation, particularly in terms of accountability. Many analysts consider institutional arrangement as the most fundamental aspect of delivering effective transport systems. A range of governance systems exist for urban transport authorities. The NTA most closely reflects the model of a public agency with subcontracted services. Within this structure, levels of accountability and integration with local democracy appear to be very limited, with little or no public representation and the agency excerpting control over all land use development plans within its administrative area. Evidence from other jurisdictions indicates that those systems with high levels of democratic involvement and the most effective distribution of strategic, tactical and operational planning lead to the most efficient and sustainable transport networks. Analysis of the NTA corporate structure suggests that, while it possesses strong strategic and planning controls, a number of factors – including its lack of accountability, its unclear relationship with other transport agencies and its overly broad geographic remit – may hinder its ability to deliver its stated objectives. Comparison with the public transport federation or “verkehrsverbund” model, in particular, show that increased democratic involvement, combined with greater powers over operational agencies may be a more effective means to creating a sustainable transport network. A recent bill and current government policy also suggest that this may be a more appropriate direction for the Greater Dublin Area if accountability is to be pursued as an objective.

Securing public transportation ridership is critical for developing a sustainable urban future. However, many modern and growing cities are facing declines in public transport usage. Existing systems for analyzing and identifying weaknesses in public transport connections face major limitations. In cities, origin-destination (OD) matrices--which measure the flow of people between different geographical regions--are often generated using household surveys, which are time consuming and lack spatial and temporal accuracy. Focus in more recent research has been drawn towards using cellphones to overcome these limitations. In this article, we show that urban mobility patterns and transport mode choices can be derived from cellphone call detail records coupled with public transport data recorded from smart cards. Specifically, we present new methods to determine the spatial and temporal variability of public and private transportation usage and transport mode preferences across the dense, metropolitan city-state of Singapore.The cellphone dataset consists of location data of 3.4 million anonymized users of SingTel, Singapore's largest telecommunications company with a market share of 45.3%. The data were recorded during a two-month period from mid-March to mid-May 2011. A call detail record (CDR) includes the location (spatial resolution of 400 m) of the cell tower each cellphone connects to and was created in the case of following network events:• a phone call was initiated or received (at the beginning and at the end of the call).• a short message was sent or received.• the cellphone user accessed the data network (for example, to open a website or retrieve emails).By applying a clustering detection algorithm to these call detail records, we detect individual trips and extrapolate the overall mobility of people between the 55 administrative districts of Singapore (taking into account the market share of SingTel and the cellphone penetration of 144 %). The mode share of private transport usage is then derived by computing the difference between the estimated overall mobility and the traces of 4.4 million public transportation smart card users during the same time period.We validate out data mining approach using the results from Singapore's Household Interview Travel Survey (HITS): Our results revealed that there are 3.5 million (HITS: 3.5 million) inter-district trips by public transport and 4.3 million (HITS: 4.4 million) inter-district trips by private transport (including taxis). Private transport usage dominates in regions without access to a subway line (see Figure 1). Along with classifying which transportation connections are weak or underserved---where people prefer to take private rather than public transport---the analysis shows that the mode share of public transport increases from 38% in the morning to 44% around mid-day and 52% in the evening.The value of deriving such patterns using cellphone call detail records have important implications not only for urban and transportation planning, but also for other domains such as disease control in cities. As humans serve as the primary and secondary vectors of many infectious diseases, understanding from where people arrive and depart and by which transportation modes people are traveling, we have the potential to model how and where diseases might be spreading and from where they might originate.

Examining the potential for car-shedding in the Greater Dublin Area

User retention tendency of bus routes based on user behavior transition in an area with low mode share of public transport

Abstract. This study investigates the key factors influencing public transport mode shares in Uyo Urban area, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, with a focus on understanding the role of the built environment factors on public transport mode shares. The study employed a mixed-method approach, utilizing a structured survey for data collection, capturing key variables such as population density, transit supply, road network density, and commuter preferences. Data were analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Multiple Linear Regression, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to explore spatial and non-spatial relationships between the identified factors and public transport usage. The PCA revealed three key components influencing public transport mode share: accessibility and infrastructure quality (39.36%), environmental constraints (15.15%), and mobility and Travel behaviour (13.15%). Regression analysis indicated that environmental constraints were the most significant predictor, followed by mobility and travel behaviour and accessibility and infrastructure quality. The GWR analysis highlighted spatial heterogeneity, showing that the impact of these factors varied across different neighbourhoods within Uyo urban. The findings suggest that improving infrastructure, addressing environmental constraints, and aligning public transport systems with commuter behaviours are crucial for increasing public transport usage. Policy recommendations include enhancing transit supply, improving road connectivity, mitigating environmental challenges, and tailoring services to commuter needs. The study underscores the importance of a multi-faceted approach to public transport planning that considers both infrastructure and socio-environmental factors to improve public transport adoption and sustainability in Uyo Urban and similar urban contexts.

Asia has urbanized and growing urban population demands for better urban mobility services. There are concerted efforts by authorities to improve public transport in Asian cities. However, the mode share of public transport is still low in many cities and use of personal vehicles is dominant. This is leading to an increase in congestion, consumption of fossil fuels, road accidents, emissions, and air pollution. The quality and reliability of public transport services play an important role in attracting more commuters. Stakeholders’ participation is an important aspect of urban transport planning according to their needs. The paper presents the findings of a survey of public transport users in five Asian cities. The user satisfaction surveys along key public transport routes indicate mixed results. While the users are satisfied with services in Bandung, Thimphu and Tehran, majority of survey respondents in Dhaka and Ho Chi Minh city are not satisfied with the public transport services. The results provide useful insights for transport planners and public transport regulators and operators to improve accessibility, safety, quality and reliability of public transport systems. The improvement of services would help to attract more commuters to the system and increase the mode share of public transport thereby enhancing the overall sustainability of public transport systems.

Previous studies have looked at the absence and need for orbital public transport corridors in the Greater Dublin Area [1]. This current paper outlines recent evidence which demonstrates that demand for such orbital services exists. Recent travel survey data indicates that demand exists in Dublin for both orbital and “networked” trips. In surveys of public transport users on two public transport corridors in the Greater Dublin Area, 27% of people transferred either from or to another public transport service as part of their journey. Overall this appears a very significant level of passenger transfer within an urban transport market where traditionally transferability is thought of as being low or negligible. This suggests that there is an existing demand for orbital and directional trips (those which involve a transfer) within the Greater Dublin Area. Both surveys were taken across contrasting areas of the city. The evidence for transfer demand is corroborated by the census and by household travel data collected by the NTA, both of which indicate a clear and significant demand for orbital trips. No matching or supporting high level of service corridors currently exist to support these. The Dublin City Council Core Strategy also suggests the implementation of an orbital network and this should, in a normal planning framework, lead transport strategy. Orbital High Quality Bus Corridors have been proposed for Dublin in the past but never implemented. Orbital routes are often considered a costly idea that is unpopular with transport users. Yet many cities provide them in a successful, often revenue-generating context. Cities that support successful orbital services take a Network Effect approach to service design where high quality transferability is paramount. Local and international evidence suggests that orbital QBCs can be a success if implemented with a high level of service. The benefits of implementing orbital high quality corridors goes beyond serving immediate trip demand and can help to create an effective city-wide transport network.

The northwestern portion of the Mexican territory has a semiarid climate with scarce rains and no reliable water supply sources. The cities of Tijuana, Tecate and Rosarito, Baja California, Mexico, are located within this zone and depend on the Ri´o Colorado–Tijuana Aqueduct to fulfill approximately 90% of its water demand. This large hydraulic facility is 147 km long and elevates 4.0 m3/s of water at a height of 1,060 m. It is composed of 6 pumping stations with a total installed motor capacity of 79,500 hp. At this time the capacity of the aqueduct is being increased to 5.33 m3/s by means of installing an additional pump to each pumping station and a 54″ parallel line. The motor capacity increase will be of 26,500 hp. In 2009, its electricity consumption was of 433,589 MWh at a cost of $29,494,630 USD. Emissions to the atmosphere associated to this electricity consumption were calculated to be: 73 tonnes of SO2, 73 tonnes of NOx and 116,467 tonnes of CO2. This paper presents the methodology used to evaluate the potential savings of electricity and emissions and recommends alternatives to decrease its current energy consumption. Results obtained show that 35,949 MWH at a cost of $2,762,300 USD can be saved annually if the equipment performance were at its optimal efficiency. Emissions to the atmosphere avoided would be of 9,656 tonnes of CO2, 6 tonnes of SO2 and 17 tonnes of NOx.

Public transportation is a cost effective means for reaching a destination while not exacerbating climate change by cutting down on CO<inf>2</inf> emissions through displacing single or low occupancy vehicles. Unfortunately, public transportation is vastly underutilized in the United States and many efforts to reverse the bad precedence set by the automotive industry in the past decades have fallen short. The Public Transit Hub (PTHub) project under reserach and development at Santa Clara University&#x2019;s Ethical, Pragmatic, and Intelligent Computing (EPIC) laboratory aims to aid the resurgence of public transportation usage by creating an event and navigation mobile/web software that prioritizes public transportation utilization through 1) auto calculating, tabulation, and tracking of the amount of money saved and CO<inf>2</inf> spared by using public transportation for the trip over a single occupancy vehicle; 2) gamification of saving money and sparing CO<inf>2</inf> by utilizing the application for navigating the public transportation option of travel through periodic badges and awards; 3) an engaging new reverse search functionality allowing the exploration and discovery of attractions accessible directly from public transit stops, stations, and hubs without a last mile/kilometer burden in an effort to encourage public transportation utilization as a mode of discovery; and 4) detailing the scenery, monuments, and other attractions visible while on a specific public transportation route as a way of transforming the act of riding public transportation from just a means to an end, to an end in of itself.

The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously affected the whole of human society worldwide. Travel patterns have greatly changed due to the increased risk perception and the governmental interventions regarding COVID-19. This study aimed to identify contributing factors to the changes in public and private transportation mode choice behavior in China after COVID-19 based on an online questionnaire survey. In the survey, travel behaviors in three periods were studied: before the outbreak (before 27 December 2019), the peak (from 20 January to 17 March 2020), and after the peak (from 18 March to the date of the survey). A series of random-parameter bivariate Probit models was developed to quantify the relationship between individual characteristics and the changes in travel mode choice. The key findings indicated that individual sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., gender, age, ownership, occupation, residence) have significant effects on the changes in mode choice behavior. Other key findings included (1) a higher propensity to use a taxi after the peak compared to urban public transportation (i.e., bus and subway); (2) a significant impact of age on the switch from public transit to private car and two-wheelers; (3) more obvious changes in private car and public transportation modes in more developed cities. The findings from this study are expected to be useful for establishing partial and resilient policies and ensuring sustainable mobility and travel equality in the post-pandemic era.

Public transport mode share for young people appears to be growing in the 21st Century, and higher than previous mode shares appear likely to continue, increasing overall demand as today’s youths age into traditionally lower public transport-use lifecycle stages. This paper tests and supports the latter claim through application of a number of binomial logistic regression models, controlling for socioeconomic, household composition, location and service level factors. Analysis draws from over 10,000 home-based work and school commute trips from each of Montreal’s 1998, 2003, and 2008 origin-destination surveys. One large factor in Montreal’s increased youth public transport usage has been the 1997 introduction of graduated driver’s licensing, which appears to have a substantial lasting licensure damper effect only on men. Controlling for effects of variables other than survey period and age group or birth cohort, recent young age groups show higher public transport use than did their predecessors. Moreover, a plateauing of public transport mode share within birth cohorts is seen to begin earlier in life than expected. This suggests not only continuance of higher than previous transit use, but also further potential for mode share improvements if challenges from lifecycle changes, such as school-to-work transition, can be identified and addressed.

Planning for accessibility is increasingly considered in the development of equitable plans by transport agencies and it has also been shown to exert a positive influence on public transport use. However, this influence has not been examined across income groups and in different geographic regions of varying sizes. The present study measures the relationship between accessibility and mode choice for low- and higher-income groups in eleven Canadian metropolitan regions. Our results show that the impact of accessibility on public transport mode share is stronger and non-linear for the low-income group especially in the largest metropolitan areas, where increasing accessibility past a certain optimal value will lead to a decrease in public transport mode share. However, this point occurs at the 80th percentile of existing accessibility, so improvements in mode share are nonetheless expected with improved accessibility in most areas within these regions. Moreover, in regions where an optimal value is not readily observed, improved accessibility throughout the region would lead to increased uptake of public transport for both the higher- and to a greater extent, the low-income group. Findings from this paper can be of value to transport professionals working towards meeting ridership goals around the world as comparisons between groups and across regions highlight the variation in the impacts of accessibility on mode share.

This paper observes generational public transport mode share in Montreal, Canada by age group using five Origin-Destination Surveys from 1998 to 2018. Using total number of trips to work and school by public transport, the findings indicate that younger generations have higher public transport use in early adulthood which corresponds to higher use later in life compared to previous generations. Across generations, public transport mode share decreases significantly for individuals in their late twenties and thirties before stabilizing and, in some cases, increasing after the age of forty. For exclusively school bound trips, the findings suggest that expanding students’ discount for those 25 and older was the most impactful for students in their thirties and that return diminishes with older ages.