Abstract
Since the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.
Highlights
A novel Coronavirus disease, COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China on December 2019
We executed several COVID-19 epidemic scenarios to study the impact of Umrah during the month of Ramadan by simulating the SEIR epidemic models for 30 days from the start day of Ramadan
The results of the COVID-19 spread simulation using the stratified stochastic SEIR epidemic model with all the different values of βare listed in Table 5 in Appendix
Summary
A novel Coronavirus disease, COVID-19, emerged in Wuhan, China on December 2019. By early 2020, the COVID-19 infections were exported to various countries outside China, including Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and Germany via international travel (Singhal 2020). In the early stages of the pandemic, affected countries responded to the increasing number of COVID-19 confirmed cases by implementing several preventive measures to control the spread of the disease. These measures have included travel restrictions, isolation of infected populations, quarantine of suspected cases, cancellation of major events, school closure, and public lockdown (Anderson et al 2020; Bedford et al 2020; McCloskey et al 2020). Participants and attendees in MGs are arriving from different locations, have different disease exposure histories, and diverse demographics This mix of individuals with heterogeneous characteristics provides an ideal setting for the spread of various pathogens and diseases during such events
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