Measuring the impact of plot types on physical change: A diachronic analysis of urban form evolution in New York, Melbourne and Barcelona

Abstract

Plots are hypothesised as the most influential determinant of urban form evolution yet remain understudied. Existing morphological studies exploring plots' influential role lack quantitative methods, while more recent quantitative urban form studies remain largely synchronic, analysing urban form at a single timeframe without offering diachronic frameworks. Addressing this gap, we investigate the relationship between plot types and physical change in three international case studies (New York, Melbourne and Barcelona) over two centuries. Employing a novel longitudinal spatial database generated from historical maps, we present a methodology to measure the configurational character of plot structures and identify multi-variable plot typologies using k-means clustering. Statistical analysis of the relation between plot types and physical change reveals that finer-grained, narrower, and more compact plot types exhibit significantly greater resistance to building replacement compared to coarser-grained, broader, and less compact plot types. Our findings demonstrate the robustness of plot structures' configurational character in explaining physical change dynamics in cities. These data-driven findings can guide policymakers in strategic land subdivision decisions to guide future preservation and development needs and patterns, ultimately promoting more resilient and adaptive urban environments.