Abstract
This paper constructs a monthly Chinese business condition index (CBCI) by using a mixed-frequency state-space model to incorporate economic indicators from different frequencies. The modeling strategy is necessary to account for the Chinese labor market conditions. When choosing the components, we pay special attention to the reliability of Chinese data by avoiding the variables that are likely subject to government manipulation or mismeasurement. Comparisons of the CBCI and official indicators show discrepancies before 2009 and consistency afterwards, supporting the argument that Chinese official data improve markedly after 2008. An out-of-sample prediction justifies the usefulness of the CBCI in forecasting the private sector's perception of the business conditions.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
