Abstract
Cities, due to the concentration of population, economic activities and built infrastructures, are high-risk and potential damage areas in global warming scenarios. Specific climate conditions, which occurs in urban areas, are expected to change with almost certainly disadvantageous effects on quality of life at outdoor spaces. This paper presents an evaluation of climate change impact on cities, by simulating the thermal performance of outdoor spaces, using different climate scenarios. The Plaza de Armas of Concepción (Chile) has been used as case study, and climate conditions at 2020, 2050 and 2080 have been produced for the acknowledged A2’medium-high’ emissions Greenhouse Gases GHG scenario, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. To simulate the urban microclimate, the ENVI-met v4 software, a three-dimensional numerical model based primarily on fluid dynamic and thermodynamic models has been used to estimate interaction between surfaces, plant and atmosphere at the micro-scale. The comparison between different scenarios and discussion about results are presented as well. The results and discussion are a first step to advance on the knowledge of climate change impact for proposing adaptation strategies in the urban context.
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