Abstract
The first outbreak of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan was contained in the Kansai region in May 2009 by social distancing measures. Modelling methods are needed to estimate the validity of these measures before their implementation on a large scale. We estimated the transmission coefficient from outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 influenza among school children in Japan in summer 2009; using this transmission coefficient, we simulated the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza in a virtual community called the virtual Chuo Line which models an area to the west of metropolitan Tokyo. Measures evaluated in our simulation included: isolation at home, school closure, post-exposure prophylaxis and mass vaccinations of school children. We showed that post-exposure prophylaxis combined with isolation at home and school closure significantly decreases the total number of cases in the community and can mitigate the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza, even when there is a delay in the availability of vaccine.
Highlights
Cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza were first reported in Mexico in April 2009 [1]
Age distribution of cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza Data on age of persons infected with pandemic H1N1 influenza from week 28 to week 37 (6 July to 13 September) 2009 in Tokyo was obtained from the PHC reports [7] (Figure 1A)
Transmission coefficient We searched the national newspapers for information on outbreaks of influenza among children during the summer vacation 2009
Summary
Cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza were first reported in Mexico in April 2009 [1]. The virus spread rapidly across the United States and Canada, and became a global concern [2]. Initial countermeasures, including rigorous fever screening at ports of entry, were introduced by the Japanese government in response to the elevated pandemic alert level of the World Health Organization [3]. In May 2009, an outbreak of pandemic H1N1 influenza occurred in the Kansai region of Japan in Hyogo and Osaka prefectures and was contained by the end of the month [4]. After early July, the virus emerged again and spread throughout Japan [5]. Urgent implementation of measures against pandemic H1N1 influenza is required
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