Measurement and scenario simulation of effect of urbanisation on regional CO2 emissions based on UEC-SD model: A case study in Liaoning Province, China

Abstract

Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ‘Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO2 Emissions System Dynamics (UEC-SD)’ model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO2 emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO2 emissions of three urbanisation scenarios (low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO2 emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO2 emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO2 emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO2 emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO2 emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.