Maximum wind potential exploitation in autonomous electrical networks on the basis of stochastic analysis

Abstract

The vast majority of Aegean Archipelago Islands cover their continuously increasing electricity demand on the basis of oil-fired autonomous thermal power stations, presenting increased operational cost and power insufficiency. On the other hand, this area has a very high wind potential. However, the stochastic behaviour of the wind and the important fluctuations of daily and seasonal electricity load pose a substantial penetration limit for the contribution of wind energy in the corresponding load demand. The problem investigated in the present study concerns the estimation of the maximum wind energy yield, which is acceptable by an autonomous electrical network, on the basis of the probability distribution of the local grid load demand and the corresponding data related to the available wind potential. For this purpose, an integrated numerical method is developed from first principles. More specifically, the proposed calculation method estimates the maximum wind energy contribution on the basis of the existing wind potential data and the information provided by the system operator concerning the corresponding load demand as well as the operational status of the existing thermal power stations. According to the results obtained, one may state that the present situation imposes a quite narrow limit on the wind energy contributing to the fulfilment of the local societies electrical needs. Hence, only by planning and applying an integrated new strategy concerning the incorporation of new wind power in the local networks, including complementary activities, appropriate energy storage installations and improved electrical load management, it is possible to increase the wind energy participation in the autonomous Islands electrical networks.