Maximum magnitude of subduction earthquakes along the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench estimated from seismic moment conservation

Abstract

SUMMARYWe estimated the maximum magnitude of earthquakes in the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench subduction zone with a method based on the conservation of seismic moment and the record of interplate seismicity from 1977 to 2017. The key point of this method is to base calculations on the tectonic moment rate instead of the total seismic moment rate. We modeled a seismic-moment-frequency distribution for the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench on the basis of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) law, the formula published by Utsu in 1974, the gamma distribution, and the tapered G–R law. We estimated the maximum magnitude along the Japan-Kuril-Kamchatka trench as ∼10 under the truncated G–R law and ∼11 under Utsu's formula, although the latter may be an overestimate. Therefore, the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, of moment magnitude 9.2, may not be the largest possible event in this area. The recurrence interval for magnitude 10 events based on the truncated G–R law is 4000 yr. Although these two models perform equally well in terms of Akaike Information Criterion, the range of the 95 per cent confidence level is consistently narrower for the truncated G–R law than for Utsu's formula. The estimated maximum magnitude depends not only on the model used, but also on the parameters that constitute the tectonic moment. It is essential to accumulate more seismic data and achieve more precise estimates of tectonic moment to improve estimates of maximum magnitude.